大西洋经向翻转环流概念模型中的倾覆机制

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI:10.1002/wea.7609

Ruth Chapman, Sacha Sinet, Paul D. L. Ritchie

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引用次数: 0

摘要

大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）是全球海洋环流的重要组成部分。古气候记录表明，大西洋经向翻转环流有能力在不同状态之间转换，从而对全球气候产生巨大影响。利用根据全球环流模式 HadGEM3 重新校准的 AMOC 箱模型，我们提出了一种新的分叉分析方法，并展示了在气候变化下可能导致 AMOC 从当前的 "开 "状态向坍塌的 "关 "状态倾斜的机制。我们发现，分岔和噪声诱导的倾覆机制与以前的校准结果一样，仍然是可行的倾覆机制，而速率诱导的倾覆只发生在该模式的特定参数配置下。

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Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re‐calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that bifurcation‐ and noise‐induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate‐induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.

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来源期刊

Weather METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

191

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： The aim of Weather is to act as a bridge between the interests of those having a professional and a general interest in the weather, as well as between meteorologists and others working in related sciences such as climatology, hydrology and geography. Articles and regular features are written for a wide range of readers, from professional meteorologists to amateur weather observers. While technical language and mathematical content are kept to a minimum, Weather also seeks to inform and to give readers an opportunity to update their subject knowledge. Weather is also the ''house journal'' of the Society and seeks to keep the reader up-to-date with Society news and includes meeting and conference reports, a Readers'' Forum series and occasional Viewpoint articles. Photographs of weather events are an important feature of the journal and the Weather Image feature provides an opportunity to analyse a satellite image or photograph. Weather Log is a summary of the weather of each month by means of meteorological data and weather maps.