使用蒙特卡洛法分析电力基础设施建设投资的财务可行性研究 GITET 500 千伏 Cikande 建设项目案例研究

Ficry Haechal, Budi Sudiarto
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引用次数: 0

摘要

电力基础设施的发展是电力系统规划的重要组成部分,目的是确保电力系统的条件能够满足负荷增长计划,同时还要注意安全和经济因素。500 千伏 Cikande 特高压变电站(GITET)及其 150 千伏出线是 PT PLN(Persero)将要建设的基础设施之一,其运营目标是在 2025 年实现 2021-2030 年电力供应总体规划(RUPTL)。为了能够进行基础设施建设,PT PLN(Persero)需要准备足够大的投资资金,因此有必要在进行投资时进行财务可行性分析,但目前进行的财务可行性分析仍采用确定性方法,在计算财务可行性时使用的输入参数没有考虑到会影响财务可行性研究计算结果的不确定性/风险因素。在本研究中,将使用蒙特卡罗法同时模拟几个输入参数的变化,根据所需的投资值测试净现值 (NPV)、内部收益率 (IRR) 和投资回收期 (PbP)。本研究旨在通过考虑未来的不确定性/风险因素,确保 PT PLN(Persero)发布的投资符合财务可行性参数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of the Financial Feasibility Study of Investment in Electricity Infrastructure Development Using the Monte Carlo Method Case Study of the Construction of GITET 500 kV Cikande
The development of electricity infrastructure is an important part of the planning of the electric power system in order to ensure that the condition of the electricity system can meet the load growth plan while still paying attention to safety and economic factors. The 500 kV Cikande Extra High Voltage Substation (GITET) and its 150 kV Outlet are one of the infrastructures that will be built by PT PLN (Persero) with an operational target in accordance with the General Plan for the Provision of Electricity (RUPTL) for 2021 – 2030 in 2025. To be able to carry out the infrastructure development, PT PLN (Persero) needs to prepare a large enough investment fund so that it is necessary to carry out a financial feasibility analysis at the time the investment will be carried out, but the financial feasibility analysis currently carried out still uses a deterministic method, where the input parameters used in the calculation of financial feasibility have not considered the element of uncertainty/risk that will affect the output of the calculation of the financial feasibility study. In this study, the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback Period (PbP) values will be tested against the required investment value by simulating changes in several input parameters simultaneously using the Monte Carlo method. This research aims to ensure that the investment issued by PT PLN (Persero) meets the parameters of financial feasibility by considering the element of uncertainty/risk in the future.
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