How expected party affiliation influences attitudes toward immigrants? Experimental evidence from the United States

What explains natives' attitudes towards immigrants in host countries? This paper argues that not only economic and cultural but also political threat perceptions influence attitude formation. Natives consider the political balance of power and calculate the potential political benefits of admitting immigrants. This is because expected in-party members will affect the balance of power in their favour. Leveraging a conjoint experiment in the United States, this study explores whether an immigrant's expected party affiliation shapes native attitudes. The findings indicate that immigrants with defined party affiliations are favoured compared to non-affiliated ones. Moreover, respondents favoured immigrants perceived as political allies and penalized those seen as rivals. Expected party affiliation is even a strong predictor of attitudes for natives with existing anti-immigrant attitudes as they curbed their negativities and favoured certain party identities. Overall, results suggest the pivotal role of political considerations as well as the importance of studying unexplored factors in attitude formation on immigration.