Cameron C. Lee, Alindomar Silva, Chibuike Ibebuchi, Scott C. Sheridan
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Of note, two of the three cool AMs (Cool and Dry-Cool) each show a strong, but delayed mortality response in all seasons, with peak mortality 2 to 4 days after they occur, with the Dry-Cool AM having nearly a 15% increased risk of excess mortality. Humid-Warm (HW) air masses are associated with increases in deaths in all seasons 0 to 1 days after they occur. In most seasons, these near-term mortality increases are offset by reduced mortality for 1–2 weeks afterwards; however, in summer, no such reduction is noted. The Warm and Dry-Warm AMs show slightly longer periods of increased mortality, albeit slightly less intensely as compared with HW, but with a similar lag structure by season. Meanwhile, the most seasonally consistent results are with transitional weather, whereby passing cold fronts are associated with a significant decrease in mortality 1 day after they occur, while warm fronts are associated with significant increases in mortality at that same lag time. Finally, ANN modeling reveals that AM-mortality relationships gleaned from a combined meta-analysis can actually lead to more skillful modeling of these relationships than models trained on some individual cities, especially in the cities where such relationships might be masked due to low average daily mortality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":588,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biometeorology","volume":"68 11","pages":"2281 - 2296"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-024-02745-y.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The influence of air masses on human mortality in the contiguous United States\",\"authors\":\"Cameron C. Lee, Alindomar Silva, Chibuike Ibebuchi, Scott C. Sheridan\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00484-024-02745-y\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Temperature-related mortality is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. Herein, we explore the effect of air masses (AMs) – a relatively novel and holistic measure of environmental conditions – on human mortality across 61 cities in the United States. Geographic and seasonal differences in the effects of each AM on deseasonalized and detrended anomalous lagged mortality are examined using simple descriptive statistics, one-way analyses of variance, relative risks of excess mortality, and regression-based artificial neural network (ANN) models. Results show that AMs are significantly related to anomalous mortality in most US cities, and in most seasons. Of note, two of the three cool AMs (Cool and Dry-Cool) each show a strong, but delayed mortality response in all seasons, with peak mortality 2 to 4 days after they occur, with the Dry-Cool AM having nearly a 15% increased risk of excess mortality. Humid-Warm (HW) air masses are associated with increases in deaths in all seasons 0 to 1 days after they occur. In most seasons, these near-term mortality increases are offset by reduced mortality for 1–2 weeks afterwards; however, in summer, no such reduction is noted. The Warm and Dry-Warm AMs show slightly longer periods of increased mortality, albeit slightly less intensely as compared with HW, but with a similar lag structure by season. Meanwhile, the most seasonally consistent results are with transitional weather, whereby passing cold fronts are associated with a significant decrease in mortality 1 day after they occur, while warm fronts are associated with significant increases in mortality at that same lag time. Finally, ANN modeling reveals that AM-mortality relationships gleaned from a combined meta-analysis can actually lead to more skillful modeling of these relationships than models trained on some individual cities, especially in the cities where such relationships might be masked due to low average daily mortality.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":588,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Biometeorology\",\"volume\":\"68 11\",\"pages\":\"2281 - 2296\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00484-024-02745-y.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Biometeorology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-024-02745-y\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Biometeorology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-024-02745-y","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BIOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The influence of air masses on human mortality in the contiguous United States
Temperature-related mortality is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. Herein, we explore the effect of air masses (AMs) – a relatively novel and holistic measure of environmental conditions – on human mortality across 61 cities in the United States. Geographic and seasonal differences in the effects of each AM on deseasonalized and detrended anomalous lagged mortality are examined using simple descriptive statistics, one-way analyses of variance, relative risks of excess mortality, and regression-based artificial neural network (ANN) models. Results show that AMs are significantly related to anomalous mortality in most US cities, and in most seasons. Of note, two of the three cool AMs (Cool and Dry-Cool) each show a strong, but delayed mortality response in all seasons, with peak mortality 2 to 4 days after they occur, with the Dry-Cool AM having nearly a 15% increased risk of excess mortality. Humid-Warm (HW) air masses are associated with increases in deaths in all seasons 0 to 1 days after they occur. In most seasons, these near-term mortality increases are offset by reduced mortality for 1–2 weeks afterwards; however, in summer, no such reduction is noted. The Warm and Dry-Warm AMs show slightly longer periods of increased mortality, albeit slightly less intensely as compared with HW, but with a similar lag structure by season. Meanwhile, the most seasonally consistent results are with transitional weather, whereby passing cold fronts are associated with a significant decrease in mortality 1 day after they occur, while warm fronts are associated with significant increases in mortality at that same lag time. Finally, ANN modeling reveals that AM-mortality relationships gleaned from a combined meta-analysis can actually lead to more skillful modeling of these relationships than models trained on some individual cities, especially in the cities where such relationships might be masked due to low average daily mortality.
期刊介绍:
The Journal publishes original research papers, review articles and short communications on studies examining the interactions between living organisms and factors of the natural and artificial atmospheric environment.
Living organisms extend from single cell organisms, to plants and animals, including humans. The atmospheric environment includes climate and weather, electromagnetic radiation, and chemical and biological pollutants. The journal embraces basic and applied research and practical aspects such as living conditions, agriculture, forestry, and health.
The journal is published for the International Society of Biometeorology, and most membership categories include a subscription to the Journal.