Computed tomography-based radiomics and clinical-genetic features for brain metastasis prediction in patients with stage III/IV epidermal growth factor receptor-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer.

Purpose: To evaluate the value of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics combined with clinical-genetic features in predicting brain metastasis in patients with stage III/IV epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Methods: The study included 147 eligible patients treated at our institution between January 2018 and May 2021. Patients were randomly divided into two cohorts for model training (n = 102) and validation (n = 45). Radiomics features were extracted from the chest CT images before treatment, and a radiomics signature was constructed using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to describe the differences in brain metastasis-free survival (BM-FS) risk. A clinical-genetic model was developed using Cox regression analysis. Radiomics, genetic, and combined prediction models were constructed, and their predictive performances were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index).

Results: Patients with a low radiomics score had significantly longer BM-FS than those with a high radiomics score in both the training (p < 0.0001) and the validation (p = 0.0016) cohorts. The C-indices of the nomogram, which combined the radiomics signature and N stage, overall stage, third-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment, and EGFR mutation status, were 0.886 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.823-0.949) and 0.811 (95% CI 0.719-0.903) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The combined model achieved a higher discrimination and clinical utility than the single prediction models.

Conclusions: The combined radiomics-genetic model could be used to predict BM-FS in stage III/IV NSCLC patients with EGFR mutations.