Increasing variable renewables in coal-based energy systems under high electrification in the transport and heating sectors: The case of Kosovo

The increasing penetration of variable renewables poses major challenges in energy systems with limited flexibility. However, there are many solutions to support variable renewable integration when utilizing potential synergies among the different energy sectors. This research examines the technical and environmental effects of electrifying the transport and heating sectors in a coal-based energy system with limited flexibility, aiming to support the integration of variable renewable energy. Scenario analysis is employed to evaluate the use of heat pumps with thermal storage (power-to-heat) for individual heating solutions, electric vehicles, and Vehicle-to-Grid in the transport sector. These measures are evaluated as the primary means for enhancing the energy system flexibility to accommodate a larger share of variable renewables. Additionally, a dynamic analysis was conducted on thermal power plant operational capacities and efficiencies under varying electrification rates and renewable energy shares. The analysis is developed in the EnergyPLAN model using Kosovo energy system as a case study. The results confirm that the electrification of the heating and transport sectors positively impacts the integration of variable renewable energy by reducing critical excess electricity production and CO₂ emissions, while power-to-heat and Vehicle-to-Grid facilitate synergies among different energy sectors. However, scenarios with high shares of variable renewable energy present challenges for the nominal operation of thermal power plants, potentially leading to lower operational efficiencies and slightly higher CO₂ emissions compared to scenarios where thermal power plant part-load efficiency remains unchanged.