Nicolas A Menzies, Nicole A Swartwood, Ted Cohen, Suzanne M Marks, Susan A Maloney, Courtney Chappelle, Jeffrey W Miller, Garrett R Beeler Asay, Anand A Date, C Robert Horsburgh, Joshua A Salomon
{"title":"国内和国际结核病服务改进对美国结核病趋势的长期影响：数学模型研究。","authors":"Nicolas A Menzies, Nicole A Swartwood, Ted Cohen, Suzanne M Marks, Susan A Maloney, Courtney Chappelle, Jeffrey W Miller, Garrett R Beeler Asay, Anand A Date, C Robert Horsburgh, Joshua A Salomon","doi":"10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00150-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Under the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Strengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p>","PeriodicalId":56027,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Public Health","volume":"9 8","pages":"e573-e582"},"PeriodicalIF":25.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11344642/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.\",\"authors\":\"Nicolas A Menzies, Nicole A Swartwood, Ted Cohen, Suzanne M Marks, Susan A Maloney, Courtney Chappelle, Jeffrey W Miller, Garrett R Beeler Asay, Anand A Date, C Robert Horsburgh, Joshua A Salomon\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00150-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Under the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>Strengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56027,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Lancet Public Health\",\"volume\":\"9 8\",\"pages\":\"e573-e582\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":25.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11344642/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Lancet Public Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00150-6\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lancet Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00150-6","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.
Background: For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023.
Methods: Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes.
Findings: Under the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100.
Interpretation: Strengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA.
Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Lancet Public HealthMedicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
CiteScore
55.60
自引率
0.80%
发文量
305
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Public Health is committed to tackling the most pressing issues across all aspects of public health. We have a strong commitment to using science to improve health equity and social justice. In line with the values and vision of The Lancet, we take a broad and inclusive approach to public health and are interested in interdisciplinary research.
We publish a range of content types that can advance public health policies and outcomes. These include Articles, Review, Comment, and Correspondence. Learn more about the types of papers we publish.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
