Differentiating low-risk thymomas from high-risk thymomas: preoperative radiomics nomogram based on contrast enhanced CT to minimize unnecessary invasive thoracotomy.

Background: This study was designed to develop a combined radiomics nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk categorization of thymomas based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) images.

Materials: The clinical and CT data of 178 patients with thymoma (100 patients with low-risk thymomas and 78 patients with high-risk thymomas) collected in our hospital from March 2018 to July 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 125) and a validation set (n = 53) in a 7:3 ratio. Qualitative radiological features were recorded, including (a) tumor diameter, (b) location, (c) shape, (d) capsule integrity, (e) calcification, (f) necrosis, (g) fatty infiltration, (h) lymphadenopathy, and (i) enhanced CT value. Radiomics features were extracted from each CE-CT volume of interest (VOI), and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was performed to select the optimal discriminative ones. A combined radiomics nomogram was further established based on the clinical factors and radiomics scores. The differentiating efficacy was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results: Only one clinical factor (incomplete capsule) and seven radiomics features were found to be independent predictors and were used to establish the radiomics nomogram. In differentiating low-risk thymomas (types A, AB, and B1) from high-risk ones (types B2 and B3), the nomogram demonstrated better diagnostic efficacy than any single model, with the respective area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.974, 0.921, 0.962 and 0.900 in the training cohort, 0.960, 0.892, 0923 and 0.897 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the prediction probability and actual clinical findings.

Conclusions: The nomogram incorporating clinical factors and radiomics features provides additional value in differentiating the risk categorization of thymomas, which could potentially be useful in clinical practice for planning personalized treatment strategies.