Assessing four decades of fire behavior dynamics in the Cerrado biome (1985 to 2022)

Fire significantly transforms ecology and landscapes worldwide, impacting carbon cycling, species interactions, and ecosystem functions. In the Brazilian Cerrado, a fire-dependent savanna, the interaction between fire, society, and the environment is evident. Given that wildfires significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, our study aimed to analyze four decades of burned area data to understand changes in fire dynamics, using Collection 2 of annual MapBiomas Fire maps (1985 to 2022). Our study examined spatiotemporal patterns, fire recurrence, fire distribution across land uses, temporal changes in fire scar size, burned area variations across ecoregions, and their correlation with farming areas. From 1985 to 2022, fire impacted 40% (792,204 km2) of the Cerrado biome, with 63% burning more than once. Natural vegetation was the most affected, primarily due to human-driven ignition during the dry season. A noticeable trend of later peaks in fire activity, concentrated towards the end of the dry season, along with an increase in patch size over time, characterized a clear shift in the Cerrado fire regime. Recently, the MATOPIBA region and the northern biome exhibited significant fire clusters, with burned areas rising alongside farming expansion. The ecoregion-based analysis identified fire hotspots, with the "Bananal" ecoregion, the largest wetland area in the biome, exhibiting increased fire recurrence and larger patch size over time. Our four-decade analysis of fire dynamics in the Cerrado revealed human-induced changes in the fire regime, originally shifting from July to September to a new fire season from August to October. This shift poses several environmental threats given their overlap with the driest months of the year. This study improved our understanding of changes in fire patterns and their impacts on each ecoregion and land use. Wetlands experienced the highest relative burned area, highlighting their ecological importance and increased vulnerability. In the southern Cerrado, where farming is established and natural vegetation more fragmented, fire events tend to decrease; while in the north, with recent farming expansion, fire susceptibility rises. Conservation-oriented strategies, like the Brazilian Integrated Fire Management (MIF), are crucial for mitigating impacts while enhancing the Cerrado’s resilience to climate change.