Dynamic population modeling of bacterioplankton community response to gelatinous marine zooplankton bloom collapse and its impact on marine nutrient balance

The diverse microbial community in the ocean, encompassing various metabolic types, interacts with the wide array of compounds in the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool, thereby influencing the ocean’s biogeochemical state and, consequently, the global climate. Our understanding of the interactions between specific DOM constituents and microbial consortia remains limited, necessitating further refinement to achieve a mechanistic comprehension of the relationship between the DOM field and the microbial metabolic network. Attaining this level of understanding is crucial for accurately predicting the marine ecosystem’s response to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. To address this gap, we developed a bacterial population model based on the von Foerster equation. This model aims to describe the complex microbial-mediated degradation of gelatinous zooplankton (hereinafter ‘jellyfish’) detritus, as an important, but largely overlooked source of DOM in the ocean. By considering microbial growth and decay, as well as DOM uptake, and nutrient release, the model is able to describe the microbial community’s life cycle, and the biochemical transformations of the jellyfish-derived organic matter. We fitted the model to results of laboratory microcosm experiments conducted to simulate scenarios experienced by ambient microbiomes during decay of two different jellyfish species in the northern Adriatic Sea. By interpreting the fitted parameters, we highlight the differences in the microbial response to different jellyfish species, namely how these affect the microbial community composition and the release of nutrients. This model has been specifically designed for integration with ocean circulation models to create a comprehensive physical-biogeochemical ocean model. Such an extended model can be utilized for multi-scale simulations to assess the system’s response to jellyfish and jellyfish-derived organic matter. Given that jellyfish blooms may become more prevalent under future ocean scenarios, this modeling approach is essential for understanding their potential impact on marine ecosystems.