后 COVID 通货膨胀事件

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106824

Idoia Aguirre , Miguel Casares

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用一个具有内生失业波动的 NK-DSGE 模型，对美国近期的通胀事件进行了研究。我们发现，由于 COVID-19 封锁期间工资突然上涨、2021 年的扩张性货币政策以及全球能源成本飙升的季度价格推动冲击，美国的物价通胀加速。根据通货紧缩路径预测，进一步将价格或工资与滞后通胀挂钩将导致工资通胀上升和价格通货紧缩放缓。此外，美联储严厉收紧货币政策只会略微降低通胀率，但会增加失业率。

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The post-COVID inflation episode

This study examined the recent inflation episode in the US using an estimated NK-DSGE model with endogenous unemployment fluctuations. We find that the US price inflation accelerated due to a sudden wage increase during the COVID-19 lockdown, the 2021 expansionary monetary policy, and price-push shocks in the quarters of a global surge in energy costs. The disinflation path predicts that further indexing prices or wages to lagged inflation will lead to higher wage inflation and slower price disinflation. Moreover, severely tightening the Fed’s monetary policy will only slightly reduce inflation but increase unemployment.

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来源期刊

Economic Modelling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.60%

发文量

295

期刊介绍： Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.