{"title":"通过参数恢复模拟研究凸时间预算实验","authors":"Keigo Inukai , Yuta Shimodaira , Kohei Shiozawa","doi":"10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100962","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The convex time budget (CTB) method is a widely used experimental technique for eliciting an individual’s time preference in intertemporal choice problems. This paper investigates the accuracy of the estimation of the discount factor parameter and the present bias parameter in the quasi-hyperbolic discounted utility function for the CTB experiment. In this paper, we use a simulation technique called “parameter recovery”. We found that the precision of present bias parameter estimation is poor within the range of previously reported parameter estimates, making it difficult to detect the effect of present bias. Our results recommend against using a combination of the CTB experimental task and the quasi-hyperbolic discounted utility model to explore the effect of present bias.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100962"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635024000777/pdfft?md5=371b229a030e22179fb2cd576b325cac&pid=1-s2.0-S2214635024000777-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Investigation of the convex time budget experiment by parameter recovery simulation\",\"authors\":\"Keigo Inukai , Yuta Shimodaira , Kohei Shiozawa\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100962\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The convex time budget (CTB) method is a widely used experimental technique for eliciting an individual’s time preference in intertemporal choice problems. This paper investigates the accuracy of the estimation of the discount factor parameter and the present bias parameter in the quasi-hyperbolic discounted utility function for the CTB experiment. In this paper, we use a simulation technique called “parameter recovery”. We found that the precision of present bias parameter estimation is poor within the range of previously reported parameter estimates, making it difficult to detect the effect of present bias. Our results recommend against using a combination of the CTB experimental task and the quasi-hyperbolic discounted utility model to explore the effect of present bias.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47026,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance\",\"volume\":\"43 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100962\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635024000777/pdfft?md5=371b229a030e22179fb2cd576b325cac&pid=1-s2.0-S2214635024000777-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635024000777\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635024000777","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Investigation of the convex time budget experiment by parameter recovery simulation
The convex time budget (CTB) method is a widely used experimental technique for eliciting an individual’s time preference in intertemporal choice problems. This paper investigates the accuracy of the estimation of the discount factor parameter and the present bias parameter in the quasi-hyperbolic discounted utility function for the CTB experiment. In this paper, we use a simulation technique called “parameter recovery”. We found that the precision of present bias parameter estimation is poor within the range of previously reported parameter estimates, making it difficult to detect the effect of present bias. Our results recommend against using a combination of the CTB experimental task and the quasi-hyperbolic discounted utility model to explore the effect of present bias.
期刊介绍：
Behavioral and Experimental Finance represent lenses and approaches through which we can view financial decision-making. The aim of the journal is to publish high quality research in all fields of finance, where such research is carried out with a behavioral perspective and / or is carried out via experimental methods. It is open to but not limited to papers which cover investigations of biases, the role of various neurological markers in financial decision making, national and organizational culture as it impacts financial decision making, sentiment and asset pricing, the design and implementation of experiments to investigate financial decision making and trading, methodological experiments, and natural experiments.
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance welcomes full-length and short letter papers in the area of behavioral finance and experimental finance. The focus is on rapid dissemination of high-impact research in these areas.
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