基于高频地表观测数据和地球系统模型的特定地点多重压力评估

IF 2.9 3区 地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
Elise M. B. Olson, Jasmin G. John, John P. Dunne, Charles Stock, Elizabeth J. Drenkard, Adrienne J. Sutton
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球地球系统模式经常被用来评估气候多变性和变化对海洋生态系统的影响。在这项研究中,我们将地球系统模式(GFDL ESM4.1)输出的海面温度和海面 pH 值等潜在生态系统压力因子的高频(日)输出结果以及相关变量与全球系泊网络的高频时间序列进行了比较,以直接评估该模式在从日到年际的时间尺度上解析本地生物地球化学变异性的能力。我们的分析表明,ESM4.1 与观测数据之间最一致的是地表温度的变化,皮尔逊相关系数为 0.93,偏差为 0.40°C,其次是地表盐度的变化。与生物地球化学变异性相比,物理变异性的再现精度更高,与高频变异性相比,季节性和更长时间尺度上的变异性在模式和观测数据之间的一致性更高。同时,在许多情况下,分辨率较高的季节和较长时间尺度的变率可以很好地预测极端事件发生的可能性。尽管模式对高频变率的代表性有限,但根据模式和观测数据对出现地表 T-pH 和 T-Ωarag 多胁迫条件的天数比例的评估显示出了合理的一致性,这取决于胁迫的组合和阈值的定义。我们还发现了一些可以通过考虑模式偏差来减少误差的情况。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Site-Specific Multiple Stressor Assessments Based on High Frequency Surface Observations and an Earth System Model

Site-Specific Multiple Stressor Assessments Based on High Frequency Surface Observations and an Earth System Model

Global Earth system models are often enlisted to assess the impacts of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. In this study, we compare high frequency (daily) outputs of potential ecosystem stressors, such as sea surface temperature and surface pH, and associated variables from an Earth system model (GFDL ESM4.1) with high frequency time series from a global network of moorings to directly assess the capacity of the model to resolve local biogeochemical variability on time scales from daily to interannual. Our analysis indicates variability in surface temperature is most consistent between ESM4.1 and observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.93 and bias of 0.40°C, followed by variability in surface salinity. Physical variability is reproduced with greater accuracy than biogeochemical variability, and variability on seasonal and longer time scales is more consistent between the model and observations than higher frequency variability. At the same time, the well-resolved seasonal and longer timescale variability is a reasonably good predictor, in many cases, of the likelihood of extreme events. Despite limited model representation of high frequency variability, model and observation-based assessments of the fraction of days experiencing surface T-pH and T-Ωarag multistressor conditions show reasonable agreement, depending on the stressor combination and threshold definition. We also identify circumstances in which some errors could be reduced by accounting for model biases.

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来源期刊
Earth and Space Science
Earth and Space Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
3.20%
发文量
285
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: Marking AGU’s second new open access journal in the last 12 months, Earth and Space Science is the only journal that reflects the expansive range of science represented by AGU’s 62,000 members, including all of the Earth, planetary, and space sciences, and related fields in environmental science, geoengineering, space engineering, and biogeochemistry.
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