全球变暖下亚洲大都市地区新出现的登革热风险

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004548
Cheng Jing, Guojie Wang, Kristie L. Ebi, Buda Su, Xiaoming Wang, Dong Chen, Tong Jiang, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
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引用次数: 0

摘要

伊蚊正在随着气候变化改变其地理分布范围。这令人担忧,因为这些蚊子可能携带登革热和其他病毒性疾病。不断变化的天气模式也会增加伊蚊的数量,从而导致人类接触伊蚊的机会增多,增加人口健康风险。我们利用多模型组合,预测了在比工业化前温度高 1.5°C 至 5.0°C 的气候变暖情景下,伊蚊的地理分布以及亚洲大都市地区接触登革热的人群的相关变化。随着全球变暖,预计阿拉伯半岛南部、伊朗南部的阿拉伯海沿岸、西亚的巴基斯坦南部、朝鲜半岛、日本列岛的大部分地区以及东亚的华北部分地区将适合登革热传播。预计暴露于登革热的大都市地区的数量将从参照期(1995-2014 年)的 142 个(48%)变为升温 5.0°C 时的 211 个(71%)。在社会经济和气候变化的综合影响下,预计亚洲大都市地区登革热感染人口将从 1995-2014 年的 2.63 亿(多模型范围 2.52-2.68 亿)分别增加到 1.0℃、2.0℃、3.0℃、4.1(3.94-4.32)亿、4.46(4.20-4.90)亿、5.09(4.75-6.01)亿、5.58(4.93-6.85)亿和 5.87(5.29-7.73)亿。5摄氏度、2.0摄氏度、3.0摄氏度、4.0摄氏度和5摄氏度的情况下,大都市地区平均每年新增290万人感染登革热。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming

Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming

Aedes sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of Aedes mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure and enhancing population health risks. We project the geographic distribution of Aedes and associated changes in populations exposed to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas under warming scenarios from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above pre-industrial temperatures, using multi-model ensembles. With global warming, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the coast of the Arabian Sea in southern Iran, southern Pakistan in West Asia, the Korean Peninsula, most of the Japanese islands, and parts of North China in East Asia are projected to become suitable for dengue transmission. The numbers of metropolitan areas exposed to dengue is projected to change from 142 (48%) in the reference period (1995–2014) to 211 (71%) at 5.0°C warming. With the combined impact of socioeconomic and climate change, population exposure to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas is projected to increase from 263 (multi-model range 252–268) million in 1995–2014 to 411 (394–432) million, 446 (420–490) million, 509 (475–601), 558 (493–685) and 587 (529–773) million, respectively, at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C and 5°C warming, with an average of 2.9 million new people exposed to dengue fever in metropolitan areas each year.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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