评估小额信贷机构的现金流风险:自下而上的方法和蒙特卡罗模拟

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Xianghua Tang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

小额金融机构(MFIs)在新兴金融体系和农村金融体系创新中发挥着至关重要的作用。小额金融机构极大地促进了资本流动,缓解了小型和微型企业的融资困难,并解决了服务不足地区的贫困问题。然而,通过发展解决贫困问题和实现社会目标的要求使小额金融机构面临金融风险,特别是与资本偿还相关的现金流风险,这可能会阻碍其正常运营。因此,有必要对小额贷款公司面临的现金流风险进行系统研究,以增强其可持续发展能力。本研究采用自下而上的方法,结合蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS)计算风险值(VaR),对中国上市小额贷款公司的资金流进行评估。该分析为小额信贷机构的管理层、投资者和分析师提供了一个直接而具体的现金流不确定性衡量标准。通过比较企业现金流风险值和评估现金流风险值,研究发现了整个小额信贷行业存在的现金流风险。研究以经营战略和内部控制为重点,提出了降低小额信贷机构现金流风险的政策建议,以提高行业风险管理能力,促进可持续发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ASSESSING CASH FLOW RISK IN MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS: A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Microfinance institutions (MFIs) play a crucial role in the emerging financial system as well as in the innovation of rural financial systems. MFIs significantly promote capital flow, alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises, and address poverty in underserved areas. However, the demands to address poverty through development and meet social goals expose MFIs to financial risks, particularly cash flow risk associated with capital repayment, which can hinder normal operations. Therefore, it is essential to systematically study the cash flow risk faced by MFIs to enhance their sustainable development capabilities. This research utilizes the bottom-up approach along with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to compute the value at risk (VaR), assessing the financial flow of listed microfinance firms in China. The analysis provides a straightforward and specific measure of cash flow uncertainty for management, investors and analysts of microfinance institutions. By comparing the VaR of corporate cash flow and evaluating the VaR of cash flow, the study identifies the existence of cash flow risks within the entire microfinance industry. The study provides policy recommendations to mitigate cash flow risk in microfinance institutions, focusing on business strategy and internal control, to improve the industry’s ability to manage risks and promote sustainable development.
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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