评估气候变化和人类活动对松材线虫(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus)在中国潜在分布的影响

Forests Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI:10.3390/f15071253
Liang Zhang, Ping Wang, G. Xie, Wenkai Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

嗜木毛虫是一种干扰森林健康、阻碍林业发展的害虫,其传播受非生物因素变化和人类活动的影响。利用优化的 MaxEnt 模型(3.4.3 版),结合多种环境变量数据,预测了四种共享经济路径下嗜木虱在中国的潜在分布区域:(1)当前气候模型下的自然环境变量预测;(2)当前气候模型下的自然环境变量+人类活动预测;(3)未来气候模型(2050 年代和 2070 年代)下的自然环境变量预测。同时,分析了嗜木虱的生态位是否随时间发生了变化。结果表明,人类活动、最枯月降水量、年降水量和海拔高度对嗜木虱的分布有显著影响。在当前条件下,人类活动大大减少了嗜木虱的生存区域,其适宜分布区主要集中在我国西南部和中部地区。在未来气候变化的影响下,嗜木虱的栖息地将逐渐向东北扩散。此外,生态位重叠分析表明,木虱在未来气候中的生态位重叠率大于 0.74。该研究为了解木虱的生态适应性和潜在风险提供了重要信息,有助于指导有害生物防治和森林保护决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Potential Distribution of Pine Wood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) in China
Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is a pest that interferes with the health of forests and hinders the development of the forestry industry, and its spread is influenced by changes in abiotic factors and human activities. The potential distribution areas of B. xylophilus in China under four shared-economic pathways were predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model (version 3.4.3), combining data from a variety of environmental variables: (1) prediction of natural environmental variables predicted under current climate models; (2) prediction of natural environmental variables + human activities under current climate models; and (3) prediction of natural environmental variables under the future climate models (2050s and 2070s). Meanwhile, whether the niche of B. xylophilus has changed over time is analyzed. The results showed that human activities, precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, and elevation had significant effects on the distribution of B. xylophilus. In the current conditions, human activities greatly reduced the survival area of B. xylophilus, and its suitable distribution area was mainly concentrated in the southwestern and central regions of China. Under the influence of climate change in the future, the habitat of B. xylophilus will gradually spread to the northeast. In addition, the ecological niche overlap analysis showed that B. xylophilus in future climate was greater than 0.74. This study provides important information for understanding the ecological adaptation and potential risk of B. xylophilus, which can help guide the decision making of pest control and forest protection.
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