反复的次优选择会产生卓越的决策。

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Supratik Mondal, Dominik Lenda, Jakub Traczyk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在涉及风险和不确定性的现实生活中,最优政策的关键在于选择一个具有最高预期值(即未来结果按其概率加权)的行动方案。然而,大量经济学和心理学研究表明,人们很少遵循这一原则,而是做出次优选择。在当前的研究中,我们测试了一个假设,即重复次优选择会导致卓越决策。在一项模拟研究和三项充分激励(N = 1,046 人)的实证研究中,我们证明了以决策准确性换取可能选择数量的人比以预期价值最大化为最优决策的人表现更好(即赚得更多)。我们的研究结果表明,决策者能够适应决策任务的要求。他们倾向于做出更多的次优决策,从而获得比规范上更好的选择更好的整体绩效。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Recurring suboptimal choices result in superior decision making.
In real-life situations involving risk and uncertainty, optimal policy hinges on selecting a course of action characterized by the highest expected value (i.e., future outcomes weighted by their probabilities). Nevertheless, a vast body of �ndings from economic and psychological studies indicate that people rarely follow this principle and make suboptimal choices. In the current research, we tested a hypothesis that recurring suboptimal choices result in superior decision making. In one simulation study and three well-powered (N = 1,046) fully-incentivized empirical studies, we demonstrated that people who traded off their decision accuracy for the number of possible choices performed better (i.e., they earned more money) than those who made optimal decisions in terms of maximizing the expected value. Our results demonstrate that decision makers can adapt to the requirements of a decision task. They are inclined to make more suboptimal decisions, resulting in better overall performance than normatively better choices.
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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