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引用次数: 0
摘要
本文提出了在一个模型中分析地区经济和大型经济的方法。我们利用结构自回归与分块外生性和相互独立性假设以及 Cholesky 因子化,量化了美国宏观经济变量的冲击对佐治亚州地区经济的影响。我们发现,联邦基金利率对佐治亚州的总体变量(消费价格、实际人均个人收入和总就业人数)影响最大。就其他冲击而言,商品价格上涨对佐治亚州个人收入的影响最大,而美国通货膨胀对佐治亚州消费价格的影响最大。在行业层面,我们发现实际 GDP 对佐治亚州各行业的产出和就业的影响最大,而 M2 的影响最小,尽管与产出相比,M2 对就业的影响程度更小,持续时间更短。
Impacts of Shocks to U.S. Macroeconomic Variables on the Regional Economy of Georgia
This paper develops a way to analyze a regional economy and a large economy within a model. Using structural autoregression with block exogeneity and mutual independence assumptions as well as Cholesky factorization, we quantify the impacts of shocks to U.S. macroeconomic variables on the regional economy of Georgia. We found that the largest impact on Georgia's aggregate variables - consumer prices, real per capita personal income, and total employment - is the federal funds rate. For other shocks, Georgia's personal income is most affected by an increase in commodity prices, while Georgia's consumer prices are most affected by U.S. inflation. At the industry level, we found that the impact of real GDP is the largest and the impact of M2 is the smallest on output and employment in Georgia's industries, although the magnitude of the impact on employment is smaller and more short-lived than on output.
期刊介绍:
International Regional Science Review serves as an international forum for economists, geographers, planners, and other social scientists to share important research findings and methodological breakthroughs. The journal serves as a catalyst for improving spatial and regional analysis within the social sciences and stimulating communication among the disciplines. IRSR deliberately helps define regional science by publishing key interdisciplinary survey articles that summarize and evaluate previous research and identify fruitful research directions. Focusing on issues of theory, method, and public policy where the spatial or regional dimension is central, IRSR strives to promote useful scholarly research that is securely tied to the real world.