{"title":"评估尾矿坝液化概率的简单方法","authors":"Lays D'Hyppolito, A. Sayão, Anna Laura Nunes","doi":"10.28927/sr.2024.000924","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, two tragic accidents in Brazilian tailings dams resulted in a lack of trust in the performance of these structures. This paper aims at proposing a new procedure for estimating the liquefaction risk of existing tailings dams, with the use of well-known probabilistic methods as a valuable tool in the decision-making process for triggering an Emergency Plan. The combination of a rigorous limit equilibrium stability method (Spencer, 1967) and the FOSM probabilistic procedure (Christian et al., 1992) has proved to adequately predict the imminent liquefaction risk of both Fundão and Feijão tailings dams, which recently collapsed in Mariana (2015) and in Brumadinho (2019), both in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Considering the triggering mechanisms known to have occurred, the estimated probabilities of liquefaction failure at the time of the accidents were 36% for Fundão Dam, and 47% for Feijão Dam. The results show that the risk associated to the collapse of both structures was well above the acceptable level suggested by current standards.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"32 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A simple method for assessing the probability of liquefaction of tailings dams\",\"authors\":\"Lays D'Hyppolito, A. Sayão, Anna Laura Nunes\",\"doi\":\"10.28927/sr.2024.000924\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In recent years, two tragic accidents in Brazilian tailings dams resulted in a lack of trust in the performance of these structures. This paper aims at proposing a new procedure for estimating the liquefaction risk of existing tailings dams, with the use of well-known probabilistic methods as a valuable tool in the decision-making process for triggering an Emergency Plan. The combination of a rigorous limit equilibrium stability method (Spencer, 1967) and the FOSM probabilistic procedure (Christian et al., 1992) has proved to adequately predict the imminent liquefaction risk of both Fundão and Feijão tailings dams, which recently collapsed in Mariana (2015) and in Brumadinho (2019), both in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Considering the triggering mechanisms known to have occurred, the estimated probabilities of liquefaction failure at the time of the accidents were 36% for Fundão Dam, and 47% for Feijão Dam. The results show that the risk associated to the collapse of both structures was well above the acceptable level suggested by current standards.\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":\"32 28\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.28927/sr.2024.000924\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.28927/sr.2024.000924","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A simple method for assessing the probability of liquefaction of tailings dams
In recent years, two tragic accidents in Brazilian tailings dams resulted in a lack of trust in the performance of these structures. This paper aims at proposing a new procedure for estimating the liquefaction risk of existing tailings dams, with the use of well-known probabilistic methods as a valuable tool in the decision-making process for triggering an Emergency Plan. The combination of a rigorous limit equilibrium stability method (Spencer, 1967) and the FOSM probabilistic procedure (Christian et al., 1992) has proved to adequately predict the imminent liquefaction risk of both Fundão and Feijão tailings dams, which recently collapsed in Mariana (2015) and in Brumadinho (2019), both in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Considering the triggering mechanisms known to have occurred, the estimated probabilities of liquefaction failure at the time of the accidents were 36% for Fundão Dam, and 47% for Feijão Dam. The results show that the risk associated to the collapse of both structures was well above the acceptable level suggested by current standards.
期刊介绍:
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.