{"title":"中国 \"双碳 \"目标下东亚黑碳气溶胶直接气候效应的变化","authors":"Peng Gao, Yiman Gao, Yinan Zhou, Heng Cao, Yaxin Hu, Shu Li, Shanrong Liang, Tijian Wang, Min Xie, Mengmeng Li, Bingliang Zhuang","doi":"10.1029/2024JD040874","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the context of China's “dual carbon” goal, emissions of air pollutants are expected to significantly decrease in the future. Thus, the direct climate effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols in East Asia are investigated under this goal using an updated regional climate and chemistry model. The simulated annual average BC concentration over East Asia is approximately 1.29 μg/m<sup>3</sup> in the last decade. Compared to those in 2010–2020, both the BC column burden and instantaneous direct radiative forcing in East Asia decrease by more than 55% and 80%, respectively, in the carbon peak year (2030s) and the carbon neutrality year (2060s). Conversely, the BC effective radiative forcing (ERF) and regional climate responses to BC exhibit substantial nonlinearity to emission reduction, possibly resulting from different adjustments of thermal-dynamic fields and clouds from BC-radiation interactions. The regional mean BC ERF at the tropopause over East Asia is approximately +1.11 W/m<sup>2</sup> in 2010–2020 while negative in the 2060s. BC-radiation interactions in the present-day impose a significant annual mean cooling of −0.2 to −0.5 K in central China but warming +0.3 K in the Tibetan Plateau. As China's BC emissions decline, surface temperature responses show a mixed picture compared to 2010–2020, with more cooling in eastern China and Tibet of −0.2 to −0.3 K in the 2030s, but more warming in central China of approximately +0.3 K by the 2060s. The Indian BC might play a more important role in East Asian climate with reduction of BC emissions in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":15986,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal of China\",\"authors\":\"Peng Gao, Yiman Gao, Yinan Zhou, Heng Cao, Yaxin Hu, Shu Li, Shanrong Liang, Tijian Wang, Min Xie, Mengmeng Li, Bingliang Zhuang\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2024JD040874\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>In the context of China's “dual carbon” goal, emissions of air pollutants are expected to significantly decrease in the future. Thus, the direct climate effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols in East Asia are investigated under this goal using an updated regional climate and chemistry model. The simulated annual average BC concentration over East Asia is approximately 1.29 μg/m<sup>3</sup> in the last decade. Compared to those in 2010–2020, both the BC column burden and instantaneous direct radiative forcing in East Asia decrease by more than 55% and 80%, respectively, in the carbon peak year (2030s) and the carbon neutrality year (2060s). Conversely, the BC effective radiative forcing (ERF) and regional climate responses to BC exhibit substantial nonlinearity to emission reduction, possibly resulting from different adjustments of thermal-dynamic fields and clouds from BC-radiation interactions. The regional mean BC ERF at the tropopause over East Asia is approximately +1.11 W/m<sup>2</sup> in 2010–2020 while negative in the 2060s. BC-radiation interactions in the present-day impose a significant annual mean cooling of −0.2 to −0.5 K in central China but warming +0.3 K in the Tibetan Plateau. As China's BC emissions decline, surface temperature responses show a mixed picture compared to 2010–2020, with more cooling in eastern China and Tibet of −0.2 to −0.3 K in the 2030s, but more warming in central China of approximately +0.3 K by the 2060s. The Indian BC might play a more important role in East Asian climate with reduction of BC emissions in China.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15986,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD040874\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD040874","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在中国 "双碳 "目标的背景下,预计未来空气污染物的排放量将大幅减少。因此,在这一目标下,利用更新的区域气候和化学模型研究了东亚地区黑碳气溶胶对气候的直接影响。在过去十年中,东亚上空的模拟年均 BC 浓度约为 1.29 μg/m3 。与2010-2020年相比,在碳峰值年(2030年代)和碳中和年(2060年代),东亚的BC柱负荷和瞬时直接辐射强迫分别减少了55%和80%以上。相反,BC 有效辐射强迫(ERF)和区域气候对 BC 的响应对减排表现出很大的非线性,这可能是由于 BC 辐射相互作用对热动力场和云层的不同调整造成的。东亚对流层顶的区域平均 BC ERF 在 2010-2020 年约为 +1.11 W/m2,而在 2060 年代为负值。目前,BC-辐射相互作用在华中地区造成了显著的年平均降温-0.2 到-0.5 K,而在青藏高原则造成了+0.3 K的升温。与 2010-2020 年相比,随着中国 BC 排放量的减少,地表温度的响应也会有所变化,到 2030 年代,中国东部和西藏的降温幅度会更大,为-0.2 到-0.3 K,但到 2060 年代,中国中部的升温幅度会更大,约为+0.3 K。随着中国 BC 排放的减少,印度 BC 可能会在东亚气候中发挥更重要的作用。
Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal of China
In the context of China's “dual carbon” goal, emissions of air pollutants are expected to significantly decrease in the future. Thus, the direct climate effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols in East Asia are investigated under this goal using an updated regional climate and chemistry model. The simulated annual average BC concentration over East Asia is approximately 1.29 μg/m3 in the last decade. Compared to those in 2010–2020, both the BC column burden and instantaneous direct radiative forcing in East Asia decrease by more than 55% and 80%, respectively, in the carbon peak year (2030s) and the carbon neutrality year (2060s). Conversely, the BC effective radiative forcing (ERF) and regional climate responses to BC exhibit substantial nonlinearity to emission reduction, possibly resulting from different adjustments of thermal-dynamic fields and clouds from BC-radiation interactions. The regional mean BC ERF at the tropopause over East Asia is approximately +1.11 W/m2 in 2010–2020 while negative in the 2060s. BC-radiation interactions in the present-day impose a significant annual mean cooling of −0.2 to −0.5 K in central China but warming +0.3 K in the Tibetan Plateau. As China's BC emissions decline, surface temperature responses show a mixed picture compared to 2010–2020, with more cooling in eastern China and Tibet of −0.2 to −0.3 K in the 2030s, but more warming in central China of approximately +0.3 K by the 2060s. The Indian BC might play a more important role in East Asian climate with reduction of BC emissions in China.
期刊介绍:
JGR: Atmospheres publishes articles that advance and improve understanding of atmospheric properties and processes, including the interaction of the atmosphere with other components of the Earth system.