An evaluation of potential inbreeding depression in wild Mexican wolves

Estimates of the influence of inbreeding on the fitness of wild animals can guide genetic conservation in rare species. Conservation genetics is important in Mexican wolves (Canis lupus baileyi) because the current population descended from 7 founders and mean inbreeding is relatively high. As an endangered subspecies, Mexican wolves are actively managed using select conflict avoidance measures and by placing captive-born foster pups into wild litters. We obtained data on inbreeding coefficients of wolf pups and adults based on a pedigree dating to 1957 and data on reproduction for wild wolf packs during 1998–2022. We estimated trends in inbreeding coefficients and the associations between dam, sire, and pup inbreeding coefficients and pup recruitment to age 9 months, and assessed 3 components of recruitment: probability of producing a litter, number of pups produced, and recruitment conditional on successful reproduction. We generated estimates using generalized linear mixed models and bootstrapped estimates of confidence intervals. Mean inbreeding coefficients were high (0.227, SD = 0.047) in the wild population, but we detected no significant evidence of an increase during 2010–2022. Overall, the net associations of dam, sire, and pup inbreeding coefficients with our primary fitness metric, pup recruitment to age 9 months, did not differ from zero. While high inbreeding coefficients are a concern for the long-term recovery of the subspecies, the stable level of inbreeding, lack of evidence for inbreeding depression, high pup production (5.1 pups/litter, SD = 1.64), and rapid population growth (384% increase from 2010–2022) indicate that inbreeding has not prevented rapid progress towards recovery goals under current management practices.