人畜共患病和病媒传播病毒建模。

IF 5.7 2区 医学 Q1 VIROLOGY
Seth D Judson , David W Dowdy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2013-2016 年埃博拉病毒病的流行和 2019 年冠状病毒病的大流行激发了新出现的人畜共患病毒和病媒传染病毒模型的巨大发展。因此,我们回顾了模型的主要目标和方法,为科学家和决策者提供指导。新发病毒模型的要素各不相同:从了解过去到预测未来,使用跨时空数据,以及使用统计方法和机理方法。混合/集合模型和人工智能为建模提供了新的机遇。尽管取得了这些进展,但在将模型转化为可操作的决策方面仍然存在挑战,尤其是在病毒性疾病爆发风险最高的地区。要解决这个问题,我们必须找出特定病毒模型的不足之处,加强验证工作,并让决策者参与模型开发。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling zoonotic and vector-borne viruses

The 2013–2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic galvanized tremendous growth in models for emerging zoonotic and vector-borne viruses. Therefore, we have reviewed the main goals and methods of models to guide scientists and decision-makers. The elements of models for emerging viruses vary across spectrums: from understanding the past to forecasting the future, using data across space and time, and using statistical versus mechanistic methods. Hybrid/ensemble models and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities for modeling. Despite this progress, challenges remain in translating models into actionable decisions, particularly in areas at highest risk for viral disease outbreaks. To address this issue, we must identify gaps in models for specific viruses, strengthen validation, and involve policymakers in model development.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
11.80
自引率
5.10%
发文量
76
审稿时长
83 days
期刊介绍: Current Opinion in Virology (COVIRO) is a systematic review journal that aims to provide specialists with a unique and educational platform to keep up to date with the expanding volume of information published in the field of virology. It publishes 6 issues per year covering the following 11 sections, each of which is reviewed once a year: Emerging viruses: interspecies transmission; Viral immunology; Viral pathogenesis; Preventive and therapeutic vaccines; Antiviral strategies; Virus structure and expression; Animal models for viral diseases; Engineering for viral resistance; Viruses and cancer; Virus vector interactions. There is also a section that changes every year to reflect hot topics in the field.
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