Watchful waiting to surgery in men with mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic inguinal hernia: an individual participant data meta-analysis of long-term follow-up of randomized controlled trials.

Background: Individual studies on men with mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic inguinal hernia who have opted for watchful waiting (WW) vary considerably. Furthermore, long-term data on such patients who cross over to herniorrhaphy is scarce.

Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched systematically from inception to 3rd April 2024 for long-term follow-up of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on men with mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic inguinal hernia. Individual participant survival data of cross over rates from WW to herniorrhaphy were extracted, reconstructed and combined. Secondary outcome was reason for cross over to herniorrhaphy.

Results: Long-term follow-up of three RCTs with 592 participants was included. A total of 344/592 participants crossed over to herniorrhaphy during a median follow up period that ranged from 3.2 to 12.0 years. The median cumulative cross over rate was 54.2% (95% CI 45.5% - 66.3%). The cumulative 1-year, 5-year, and 10- year cross over rates were 28.7% (95% CI 25.2% - 32.5%), 51.5% (95% CI 47.4% - 55.6%), and 70.6% (95% CI 66.2% - 74.9%) respectively. During follow-up, the most frequent reasons for cross over to herniorrhaphy were increased pain 198/344 (57.6%) and incarceration 15/344 (4.4%).

Conclusion: This study provides valuable long-term data for patient counselling, indicating that while WW is a safe strategy for men with mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic inguinal hernia, symptoms would likely progress eventually, necessitating operative repair.