中国长江三角洲地区与缺水、粮食生产和粮食贸易相关的粮食安全风险。

IF 8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Science of the Total Environment Pub Date : 2024-10-20 Epub Date: 2024-07-20 DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174863
Lei Chen, Xiaolin Xia, Jingyu Zhang, Yulue Zhu, Changyu Long, Yingjian Chen, Weiling Guo, Liuyang Xu, Jiang Jia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

粮食生产耗水量大,受各地区缺水程度和粮食贸易参与程度的影响。粮食贸易改变了粮食进出口地区的粮食安全风险。因此,要理解粮食贸易网络带来的粮食安全风险,考虑地区缺水问题至关重要。在此,我们基于跨城市粮食贸易网络,结合虚拟水流,构建了一个衡量与缺水、粮食生产和粮食贸易相关的区域粮食安全风险的新框架,以评估 2017 年中国长三角地区(YRD)的区域粮食安全风险。结果表明,在当前中国国内粮食贸易格局下,长三角及其四个省级行政区处于粮食净进口状态。长三角内部的粮食贸易主要集中在安徽和江苏两大粮食主产区向浙江和上海的出口,尤其是江苏北部向浙江东南部的出口。大多数城市虚拟蓝水的净输入结果表明,长三角的水资源压力已经转移到中国其他粮食输出地区,上海和浙江是最大的受益者。极端风险只存在于上海,严重和中度风险集中在江苏。目前的粮食贸易使长三角地区的整体粮食安全风险降低了 1.3%,但上海和浙江的风险分别增加了 2.1%和 0.8%。本研究强调了粮食贸易体系中缺水地区过度生产粮食可能给稳定粮食供应带来的潜在风险,为全面了解粮食和水安全形势以及未来权衡利弊提供了有用信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta of China associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade.

Grain production consumes a large amount of water and is affected by the degree of water scarcity and participation in the grain trade in various regions. The grain trade has changed the food security risks in regions where grain exports and imports. Therefore, it is crucial to consider regional water scarcity to understand food security risks from the grain trade network. Here, we construct a new framework for measuring regional food security risks associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade based on a cross-city grain trade network combined with virtual water flows to evaluate the regional food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) of China in 2017. The results show that under the current domestic grain trade pattern in China, the YRD and its four provincial-level administrative regions are in a net grain import state. The grain trade within the YRD is concentrated in exports from the two major grain-producing areas of Anhui and Jiangsu to Zhejiang and Shanghai, especially from northern Jiangsu to southeastern Zhejiang. The net import results of virtual blue water in most cities indicate that the YRD has shifted its water resource pressure to other grain exporting regions in China, with Shanghai and Zhejiang being the greatest beneficiaries. Extreme risk only exists in Shanghai, and severe and moderate risks are concentrated in Jiangsu. The current grain trade has reduced the overall food security risk in the YRD by 1.3 % but increased the risks in Shanghai and Zhejiang by 2.1 % and 0.8 % respectively. This study highlights the potential risks that excessive production of food in water-scarce areas in the grain trade system may bring to a stable food supply, providing useful information for a comprehensive understanding of the food and water security situation and for future trade-offs.

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来源期刊
Science of the Total Environment
Science of the Total Environment 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
17.60
自引率
10.20%
发文量
8726
审稿时长
2.4 months
期刊介绍: The Science of the Total Environment is an international journal dedicated to scientific research on the environment and its interaction with humanity. It covers a wide range of disciplines and seeks to publish innovative, hypothesis-driven, and impactful research that explores the entire environment, including the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. The journal's updated Aims & Scope emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary environmental research with broad impact. Priority is given to studies that advance fundamental understanding and explore the interconnectedness of multiple environmental spheres. Field studies are preferred, while laboratory experiments must demonstrate significant methodological advancements or mechanistic insights with direct relevance to the environment.
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