作物害虫-捕食者系统在气候变化下进化救援的地域差异。

IF 3.5 2区 生物学 Q1 EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY
Xuezhen Ge, Jonathan A. Newman, Cortland K. Griswold
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引用次数: 0

摘要

物种分布模型(SDMs)通常建立在 "生态位保守主义 "假设的基础上,因此忽略了 "进化拯救 "的可能性,可能会低估物种在气候变化下的未来分布范围。我们选择蚜虫和瓢虫作为模式物种,建立了一个生态进化模型,探讨气候变化下捕食者-猎物系统中的进化拯救。我们模拟了物种热性能的适应性变化,并考虑了生物间的相互作用。我们的研究表明,如果不考虑进化适应,气候变暖将导致美国大部分地区蚜虫数量减少,瓢虫灭绝。然而,将进化适应纳入模型后,蚜虫可以适应气候变化,而瓢虫则在进化拯救潜力方面表现出地域差异。具体来说,南部地区的瓢虫比北部地区的瓢虫更容易得到拯救。在某些北方地区,瓢虫由于严重的变暖趋势和气候的季节性而无法避免灭绝。虽然较高的变暖趋势确实会促使表型发生较强的进化变化,但同时也会导致蚜虫数量减少,从而使生态环境限制了瓢虫数量的增长。较高的季节性限制了繁殖季节的长度,从而降低了进化拯救的能力,诱发了生态效应。这些发现共同揭示了在进化适应气候变化的背景下,生态和进化动态之间复杂的相互作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest–predator system

Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest–predator system

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the “niche conservatism” assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of “evolutionary rescue” and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator–prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate change, whereas ladybirds demonstrate geographic variation in their evolutionary rescue potential. Specifically, ladybirds in southern regions are more likely to be rescued than those in the north. In certain northern regions, ladybirds do not avoid extinction due to severe warming trends and seasonality of the climate. While higher warming trends do prompt stronger evolutionary changes in phenotype, they also lead to reduced aphid population abundance such that ecology constrains ladybird population growth. Higher seasonality induces an ecological effect by limiting the length of reproductive season, thereby reducing the capacity for evolutionary rescue. Together, these findings reveal the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the context of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.

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来源期刊
Evolutionary Applications
Evolutionary Applications 生物-进化生物学
CiteScore
8.50
自引率
7.30%
发文量
175
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Evolutionary Applications is a fully peer reviewed open access journal. It publishes papers that utilize concepts from evolutionary biology to address biological questions of health, social and economic relevance. Papers are expected to employ evolutionary concepts or methods to make contributions to areas such as (but not limited to): medicine, agriculture, forestry, exploitation and management (fisheries and wildlife), aquaculture, conservation biology, environmental sciences (including climate change and invasion biology), microbiology, and toxicology. All taxonomic groups are covered from microbes, fungi, plants and animals. In order to better serve the community, we also now strongly encourage submissions of papers making use of modern molecular and genetic methods (population and functional genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenetics, quantitative genetics, association and linkage mapping) to address important questions in any of these disciplines and in an applied evolutionary framework. Theoretical, empirical, synthesis or perspective papers are welcome.
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