Magdalena Opazo Breton, Madeleine Henney, Inge Kersbergen, Alan Brennan, John Holmes
{"title":"利用两种年龄段队列方法,扩大我们对英格兰禁酒和饮酒长期趋势(2001-19 年)的了解。","authors":"Magdalena Opazo Breton, Madeleine Henney, Inge Kersbergen, Alan Brennan, John Holmes","doi":"10.1111/add.16599","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background and aims</h3>\n \n <p>Alcohol consumption has decreased in England in recent decades, while alcohol-specific death rates have remained relatively stable. Age–period–cohort (APC) models offer the potential for understanding these paradoxical trends. This study aimed to use an APC model approach to measure long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England from 2001 to 2019.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Design, setting and participants</h3>\n \n <p>The study used grouped and proxy-variable APC models of repeat cross-sectional survey data, set in England (2001–19). Participants were residents in England aged 13 years or over who took part in the Health Survey for England.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Measurements</h3>\n \n <p>Outcome variables were alcohol abstention and consumption in units. We created nine age groups (13–15, 16–17, 18–24, 25–34, until 65–74 and 75+, reference 45–54 years), four periods (2001–04, 2005–09, 2010–14 to 2015–19, reference 2005–09) and 18 5-year birth cohorts (1915–19 to 2000–04, reference 1960–64). We proxied age effects (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), period effects (alcohol affordability, internet usage and household alcohol expenditure) and birth cohort effects (prevalence of smoking and prevalence of overweight).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Findings</h3>\n \n <p>The odds of abstaining were considerably larger at young ages, 13–15 years [odds ratio (OR) = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.50–6.43], were lowest during the first period, 2001–04 (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.79–0.86) and had a U-shaped pattern by birth cohort. For units of alcohol, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) increased until age 18–24 years (IRR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34–1.48) and decreased afterwards, were highest during the first period, 2001–04 (IRR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.05–1.08) and showed an inverted J-shape by birth cohort. Our proxy variable approach revealed that using blood pressure measures, alcohol affordability and prevalence of overweight as proxies resulted in APC effects that differed from our base-case model. However, internet usage, household expenditure on alcohol and smoking prevalence resulted in APC effects similar to our base-case model.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>The discrepancy between decreasing alcohol consumption and increasing alcohol-related deaths observed in England from 2001 to 2019 may, in part, be explained by the halt in abstention trends since 2010 and a slight consumption decline since 2001.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":109,"journal":{"name":"Addiction","volume":"119 10","pages":"1726-1736"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/add.16599","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Expanding our understanding of long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England (2001–19) using two age–period–cohort approaches\",\"authors\":\"Magdalena Opazo Breton, Madeleine Henney, Inge Kersbergen, Alan Brennan, John Holmes\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/add.16599\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Background and aims</h3>\\n \\n <p>Alcohol consumption has decreased in England in recent decades, while alcohol-specific death rates have remained relatively stable. Age–period–cohort (APC) models offer the potential for understanding these paradoxical trends. This study aimed to use an APC model approach to measure long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England from 2001 to 2019.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Design, setting and participants</h3>\\n \\n <p>The study used grouped and proxy-variable APC models of repeat cross-sectional survey data, set in England (2001–19). Participants were residents in England aged 13 years or over who took part in the Health Survey for England.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Measurements</h3>\\n \\n <p>Outcome variables were alcohol abstention and consumption in units. We created nine age groups (13–15, 16–17, 18–24, 25–34, until 65–74 and 75+, reference 45–54 years), four periods (2001–04, 2005–09, 2010–14 to 2015–19, reference 2005–09) and 18 5-year birth cohorts (1915–19 to 2000–04, reference 1960–64). We proxied age effects (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), period effects (alcohol affordability, internet usage and household alcohol expenditure) and birth cohort effects (prevalence of smoking and prevalence of overweight).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Findings</h3>\\n \\n <p>The odds of abstaining were considerably larger at young ages, 13–15 years [odds ratio (OR) = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.50–6.43], were lowest during the first period, 2001–04 (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.79–0.86) and had a U-shaped pattern by birth cohort. For units of alcohol, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) increased until age 18–24 years (IRR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34–1.48) and decreased afterwards, were highest during the first period, 2001–04 (IRR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.05–1.08) and showed an inverted J-shape by birth cohort. Our proxy variable approach revealed that using blood pressure measures, alcohol affordability and prevalence of overweight as proxies resulted in APC effects that differed from our base-case model. 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Expanding our understanding of long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England (2001–19) using two age–period–cohort approaches
Background and aims
Alcohol consumption has decreased in England in recent decades, while alcohol-specific death rates have remained relatively stable. Age–period–cohort (APC) models offer the potential for understanding these paradoxical trends. This study aimed to use an APC model approach to measure long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England from 2001 to 2019.
Design, setting and participants
The study used grouped and proxy-variable APC models of repeat cross-sectional survey data, set in England (2001–19). Participants were residents in England aged 13 years or over who took part in the Health Survey for England.
Measurements
Outcome variables were alcohol abstention and consumption in units. We created nine age groups (13–15, 16–17, 18–24, 25–34, until 65–74 and 75+, reference 45–54 years), four periods (2001–04, 2005–09, 2010–14 to 2015–19, reference 2005–09) and 18 5-year birth cohorts (1915–19 to 2000–04, reference 1960–64). We proxied age effects (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), period effects (alcohol affordability, internet usage and household alcohol expenditure) and birth cohort effects (prevalence of smoking and prevalence of overweight).
Findings
The odds of abstaining were considerably larger at young ages, 13–15 years [odds ratio (OR) = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.50–6.43], were lowest during the first period, 2001–04 (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.79–0.86) and had a U-shaped pattern by birth cohort. For units of alcohol, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) increased until age 18–24 years (IRR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34–1.48) and decreased afterwards, were highest during the first period, 2001–04 (IRR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.05–1.08) and showed an inverted J-shape by birth cohort. Our proxy variable approach revealed that using blood pressure measures, alcohol affordability and prevalence of overweight as proxies resulted in APC effects that differed from our base-case model. However, internet usage, household expenditure on alcohol and smoking prevalence resulted in APC effects similar to our base-case model.
Conclusions
The discrepancy between decreasing alcohol consumption and increasing alcohol-related deaths observed in England from 2001 to 2019 may, in part, be explained by the halt in abstention trends since 2010 and a slight consumption decline since 2001.
期刊介绍:
Addiction publishes peer-reviewed research reports on pharmacological and behavioural addictions, bringing together research conducted within many different disciplines.
Its goal is to serve international and interdisciplinary scientific and clinical communication, to strengthen links between science and policy, and to stimulate and enhance the quality of debate. We seek submissions that are not only technically competent but are also original and contain information or ideas of fresh interest to our international readership. We seek to serve low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries as well as more economically developed countries.
Addiction’s scope spans human experimental, epidemiological, social science, historical, clinical and policy research relating to addiction, primarily but not exclusively in the areas of psychoactive substance use and/or gambling. In addition to original research, the journal features editorials, commentaries, reviews, letters, and book reviews.