净零排放途径中的气候和碳循环响应取决于正排放和负排放脉冲的大小和持续时间

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004891
K. U. Jayakrishnan, Govindasamy Bala, Ken Caldeira
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引用次数: 0

摘要

了解二氧化碳负排放对气候和碳循环的响应对于制定旨在将全球变暖限制在特定临界值的气候减缓战略非常重要。在这项研究中,利用一个气候与碳循环耦合模型,进行了一组新颖的九种风格化模拟,分别在 150 年、250 年和 500 年内累计排放 1,000 GtC、2,000 GtC 和 5,000 GtC,然后进行相同的累计负排放,使净累计排放为零。在千年时间尺度上,气候系统恢复到接近工业化前的状态,与排放和清除途径无关。然而,海洋的热惯性和生物地球化学惯性在决定排放和清除阶段的气候和碳循环响应方面起着重要作用。当达到零净排放时,地表气温比工业化前升高 0-1°C ,大气中的二氧化碳浓度降低 12-29 ppm。这些变化随着排放和清除脉冲的大小和持续时间而增加。与此相反,全球平均表面温度与累积碳排放量之间关系的滞后性随着排放量和清除量脉冲的大小而增加,但随着持续时间的延长而减少。我们的研究强调了海洋惯性在气候对排放和清除的不对称响应中所起的作用,并表明,如果能尽早减少排放,意味着正负排放脉冲的幅度较小、持续时间较短的排放/清除路径,就能避免在百年时间尺度上对气候和碳循环产生更大的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Dependence of Climate and Carbon Cycle Response in Net Zero Emission Pathways on the Magnitude and Duration of Positive and Negative Emission Pulses

Dependence of Climate and Carbon Cycle Response in Net Zero Emission Pathways on the Magnitude and Duration of Positive and Negative Emission Pulses

Understanding the climate and carbon cycle response to negative CO2 emissions is important for developing climate mitigation strategies that aim to limit global warming to a specific threshold. In this study, using a coupled climate and carbon cycle model, a novel set of nine stylized simulations are conducted with cumulative emissions of 1,000 GtC, 2,000 GtC, and 5,000 GtC over 150, 250, and 500 years, followed by identical cumulative negative emissions so that the net cumulative emissions are zero. On millennial-timescales, the climate system returns close to the preindustrial state, independent of the emission and removal pathways. However, the thermal and biogeochemical inertia of the ocean play an important role in determining the climate and carbon cycle response during the emission and removal phases. When zero net emissions are reached, surface air temperature is larger by 0–1°C than the preindustrial state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration is less by 12–29 ppm. These changes increase with both the magnitude and duration of the emission and removal pulses. In contrast, hysteresis in the relationship between global mean surface temperature and cumulative carbon emissions increases with the magnitude but decreases with the duration of emission and removal pulses. Our study highlights the role of ocean inertia in the asymmetry in climate response to emissions and removals and indicates that an earlier emission reduction implying emission/removal pathways with smaller magnitudes and shorter durations for the positive and negative emission pulses would avoid larger climate and carbon cycle impacts on centennial-timescales.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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