Assessment of random dynamic behavior for EMUs high-speed train based on Monte Carlo simulation

A novel statistical method was developed to obtain a dynamic response with irregular line excitations and independent uncertain parameters. The proposed approach combines a three-dimensional vehicle-track coupling dynamics model and uncertainty parameters. Moreover, a new method is used to treat the dynamic indices: derailment coefficient, vertical/lateral wheel/rail force, vertical/lateral car body acceleration, and wheel reduction ratio. The model is validated by comparing simulations (deterministic) results with field measurements, which provide excellent agreement with limited data. According to the findings, the results reveal that the high vibration effect arises when the uncertainty parameter in the dynamic system exists. The total fit effects, the consistency of the vehicle safety, and the tail fit effects are determined for selecting the best method. Therefore, regarding the approach, the lognormal and extreme maximum distribution values may be the appropriate assumed distribution for dynamic safety under limited data.