不同气候和发展情景下的地表水面积预测

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004625
Mollie D. Gaines, Mirela G. Tulbure, Vinicius Perin, Rebecca Composto, Varun Tiwari
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候和土地利用/土地覆被的变化将影响整个 21 世纪的地表水动态,并影响全球地表水的可用性。然而,大多数地表水动态预测都是利用当地尺度的水文模型来预测气候驱动因素,很少有研究考虑到气候和人类驱动因素,如土地利用/土地覆被变化。我们使用了一个数据驱动的机器学习模型来预测美国东南部从 2006 年到 2099 年的季节性地表水面积(SWA),该模型结合了八种不同发展和排放情景下的土地覆被和气候预测。该模型与历史 Landsat 图像、土地利用/土地覆被和气候观测数据相匹配(均方误差为 0.14)。我们评估了每种情景下全部门面积的变化,并比较了数据驱动模型和基于过程的模型对地表水的预测。我们发现,在以森林为主的土地植被损失最大、气候变化最极端的情景下,其流域的西南部地区(南大西洋海湾)和密西西比河下游地区(密西西比河下游)的西南部地区面积预计将分别增加和减少最多。与基于过程的模型预测的地表水增量或减量相比,不同情景下的大多数流域在变化方向上达成了一致。我们的研究结果凸显了以森林为主的土地覆盖在整个 21 世纪保持地表水供应稳定的重要性,这可以为适应和缓解水压力的土地利用管理政策以及为未来洪水和干旱事件做准备的战略提供参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Projecting Surface Water Area Under Different Climate and Development Scenarios

Projecting Surface Water Area Under Different Climate and Development Scenarios

Changes in climate and land-use/land-cover will impact surface water dynamics throughout the 21st century and influence global surface water availability. However, most projections of surface water dynamics focus on climate drivers using local-scale hydrological models, with few studies accounting for climate and human drivers such as land-use/land-cover change. We used a data-driven, machine learning model to project seasonal surface water areas (SWAs) in the southeastern U.S. from 2006 to 2099 that combined land-cover and climate projections under eight different development and emissions scenarios. The model was fitted with historic Landsat imagery, land-use/land-cover, and climate observation data (mean squared error 0.14). We assessed the change in SWA for each scenario, and we compared the surface water projections from our data-driven model and a process-based model. We found that the scenario with the largest forest-dominated land cover loss and most extreme climate change had watersheds with the greatest projected increases (in the South Atlantic Gulf) and decreases (in the Lower Mississippi) in SWA. When compared to the increase or decrease in surface water projected by the process-based model, most of the watersheds across scenarios agreed on the direction of change. Our findings highlight the importance of forest-dominated land cover in maintaining stable surface water availability throughout the 21st century, which can inform land-use management policies for adaptation and water-stress mitigation as well as strategies to prepare for future flood and drought events.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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