美国东南部产品需求增长和土地利用变化条件下的森林碳排放

IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS
{"title":"美国东南部产品需求增长和土地利用变化条件下的森林碳排放","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103296","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Increased demands for timber products remove carbon from forests, however previous literature has suggested that higher resulting prices could spur forestland expansion, ameliorating the forest carbon impacts. We examine the impacts on forest carbon from harvest increases with an empirical forest sector model, coupled with an econometric model of endogenous land use change that differentiates the impacts of population, income, and pine plantation rents among forest management types and non-forest land uses. We explore the sensitivity of forest area and carbon to a suite of scenarios by varying timber product demands combined with a sensitivity analysis on pine plantation responses to pine plantation rents. The econometric results show that pine plantation rents lead to increases in pine plantation area and that all non-urban land uses are negatively related to both per capita income and population. Scenario projections show that (1) higher pulpwood demands driven by wood pellets lead to lower forest carbon outcomes; (2) higher sawtimber demands exacerbate the known cycles in sawtimber prices and result in corresponding cycles in forest area and carbon. All scenarios show increases in forest carbon over time, though some scenarios increase faster than others. Within the study period, the highest forest carbon level is achieved by the high sawtimber demand and low pulpwood demand scenario. Long term growth cycles over the course of the projection period, however, lead to alternating forest carbon outcomes, indicating that conclusions about forest carbon depend on the projection length.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":12451,"journal":{"name":"Forest Policy and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forest carbon under increasing product demand and land use change in the US Southeast\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103296\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Increased demands for timber products remove carbon from forests, however previous literature has suggested that higher resulting prices could spur forestland expansion, ameliorating the forest carbon impacts. We examine the impacts on forest carbon from harvest increases with an empirical forest sector model, coupled with an econometric model of endogenous land use change that differentiates the impacts of population, income, and pine plantation rents among forest management types and non-forest land uses. We explore the sensitivity of forest area and carbon to a suite of scenarios by varying timber product demands combined with a sensitivity analysis on pine plantation responses to pine plantation rents. The econometric results show that pine plantation rents lead to increases in pine plantation area and that all non-urban land uses are negatively related to both per capita income and population. Scenario projections show that (1) higher pulpwood demands driven by wood pellets lead to lower forest carbon outcomes; (2) higher sawtimber demands exacerbate the known cycles in sawtimber prices and result in corresponding cycles in forest area and carbon. All scenarios show increases in forest carbon over time, though some scenarios increase faster than others. Within the study period, the highest forest carbon level is achieved by the high sawtimber demand and low pulpwood demand scenario. Long term growth cycles over the course of the projection period, however, lead to alternating forest carbon outcomes, indicating that conclusions about forest carbon depend on the projection length.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12451,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Forest Policy and Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Forest Policy and Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001503\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Forest Policy and Economics","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934124001503","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

对木材产品需求的增加会清除森林中的碳,但以往的文献表明,由此产生的较高价格可能会刺激林地扩张,从而减轻对森林碳的影响。我们通过一个实证森林部门模型,结合一个内生土地利用变化的计量经济模型,研究了采伐量增加对森林碳的影响,该模型区分了人口、收入和松树种植园租金对森林管理类型和非森林土地利用的影响。我们通过改变木材产品需求,结合松树种植对松树种植租金的敏感性分析,探讨了森林面积和碳对一系列情景的敏感性。计量经济学结果表明,松林租金会导致松林种植面积的增加,而所有非城市土地利用都与人均收入和人口呈负相关。情景预测显示:(1) 木质颗粒燃料对纸浆材需求的增加导致森林碳排放结果的降低;(2) 锯材需求的增加加剧了已知的锯材价格周期,并导致相应的森林面积和碳排放周期。随着时间的推移,所有情景下的森林碳排放量都会增加,但某些情景下的增加速度要快于其他情景。在研究期内,高锯材需求和低浆材需求情景的森林碳含量最高。然而,预测期内的长期增长周期会导致不同的森林碳结果,这表明有关森林碳的结论取决于预测期的长短。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forest carbon under increasing product demand and land use change in the US Southeast

Increased demands for timber products remove carbon from forests, however previous literature has suggested that higher resulting prices could spur forestland expansion, ameliorating the forest carbon impacts. We examine the impacts on forest carbon from harvest increases with an empirical forest sector model, coupled with an econometric model of endogenous land use change that differentiates the impacts of population, income, and pine plantation rents among forest management types and non-forest land uses. We explore the sensitivity of forest area and carbon to a suite of scenarios by varying timber product demands combined with a sensitivity analysis on pine plantation responses to pine plantation rents. The econometric results show that pine plantation rents lead to increases in pine plantation area and that all non-urban land uses are negatively related to both per capita income and population. Scenario projections show that (1) higher pulpwood demands driven by wood pellets lead to lower forest carbon outcomes; (2) higher sawtimber demands exacerbate the known cycles in sawtimber prices and result in corresponding cycles in forest area and carbon. All scenarios show increases in forest carbon over time, though some scenarios increase faster than others. Within the study period, the highest forest carbon level is achieved by the high sawtimber demand and low pulpwood demand scenario. Long term growth cycles over the course of the projection period, however, lead to alternating forest carbon outcomes, indicating that conclusions about forest carbon depend on the projection length.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Forest Policy and Economics
Forest Policy and Economics 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
148
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信