Development a nomogram prognostic model for survival in heart failure patients based on the HF-ACTION data.

Background: The risk assessment for survival in heart failure (HF) remains one of the key focuses of research. This study aims to develop a simple and feasible nomogram model for survival in HF based on the Heart Failure-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing (HF-ACTION) to support clinical decision-making.

Methods: The HF patients were extracted from the HF-ACTION database and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify and integrate significant prognostic factors to form a nomogram, which was displayed in the form of a static nomogram. Bootstrap resampling (resampling = 1000) and cross-validation was used to internally validate the model. The prognostic performance of the model was measured by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis.

Results: There were 1394 patients with HF in the overall analysis. Seven prognostic factors, which included age, body mass index (BMI), sex, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), exercise duration, peak exercise oxygen consumption (peak VO₂), and loop diuretic, were identified and applied to the nomogram construction based on the training cohort. The C-index of this model in the training cohort was 0.715 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.700, 0.766) and 0.662 (95% CI: 0.646, 0.752) in the validation cohort. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of 365- and 730-day survival is (0.731, 0.734) and (0.640, 0.693) respectively in the training cohort and validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good consistency between nomogram-predicted survival and actual observed survival. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed net benefit is higher than the reference line in a narrow range of cutoff probabilities and the result of cross-validation indicates that the model performance is relatively robust.

Conclusions: This study created a nomogram prognostic model for survival in HF based on a large American population, which can provide additional decision information for the risk prediction of HF.