异质 SIR 模型对 COVID-19 分析的影响

IF 0.3 4区经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Design Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI:10.1007/s10058-024-00355-z

Glenn Ellison

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文简要介绍了经典 SIR 模型和允许接触率异质性的变体的结果。本文指出，将经典模型与异质性模型生成的数据进行校准，可能会导致预测结果在多个方面出现偏差，并低估预测的不确定性。这些偏差包括：我们可能会低估达到群体免疫的速度，低估不同地区之间的差异，以及对内源性和政策驱动的社会疏远影响的估计存在偏差。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Implications of heterogeneous SIR models for analyses of COVID-19

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Implications of heterogeneous SIR models for analyses of COVID-19

This paper provides a quick survey of results on the classic SIR model and variants allowing for heterogeneity in contact rates. It notes that calibrating the classic model to data generated by a heterogeneous model can lead to forecasts that are biased in several ways and to understatement of the forecast uncertainty. Among the biases are that we may underestimate how quickly herd immunity might be reached, underestimate differences across regions, and have biased estimates of the impact of endogenous and policy-driven social distancing.

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来源期刊

Review of Economic Design ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

0.80

自引率

28.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Review of Economic Design comprises the creative art and science of inventing, analyzing and testing economic as well as social and political institutions and mechanisms aimed at achieving individual objectives and social goals. In this age of Economic Design, the accumulated traditions and wealth of knowledge in normative and positive economics and the strategic analysis of game theory are applied with novel ideas in the creative tasks of designing and assembling diverse legal-economic instruments. These include constitutions and other assignments of rights, mechanisms for allocation or regulation, tax and incentive schemes, contract forms, voting and other choice aggregation procedures, markets, auctions, organizational forms, such as partnerships, together with supporting membership and other property rights, and information systems. These designs, the methods of analysis used in their scrutiny, as well as the mathematical techniques and empirical knowledge they employ, along with comparative assessments of the performance of known economic systems and implemented designs, all of these form natural components of the subject matter of Economic Design. Officially cited as: Rev Econ Design