美国总统辩论中的保护主义、双边一体化和汇率回报率横截面

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103134

Jantke de Boer , Stefan Eichler , Ingmar Rövekamp

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了 1996 年至 2016 年美国总统大选电视辩论对 96 种货币盘中汇率收益率横截面的影响。候选人在辩论中的表现是对选举概率的外生冲击。我们发现，如果保护主义候选人的当选概率在辩论期间增加，那么与美国双边外贸水平高的国家的货币就会贬值，而双边美国出口占 GDP 比重低于 2% 的国家的货币则不会受到显著影响。对保护主义措施的预期是辩论结果的主要传播渠道，而候选人对军事和移民的立场则起次要作用。

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Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Money and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

141

期刊介绍： Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.