{"title":"不确定经济时代的英国外商直接投资","authors":"Costas Milas , Theodore Panagiotidis , Georgios Papapanagiotou","doi":"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103132","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper uses time-varying Bayesian models to assess the impact of the shifting, and progressively more volatile (especially since the EU Referendum vote in 2016) macroeconomic landscape on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the UK. FDI inflows are depressed in response to higher UK-specific economic and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger real exchange rate and a higher interest rate also have a negative effect. It benefits from lower UK corporate tax rates and higher US uncertainty, the latter creating investment opportunities in the UK. Rising economic policy uncertainty since the EU Referendum, has led to FDI losses of up to 0.5% of GDP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":2,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001190/pdfft?md5=0ac078b2893b94c4210a9ae7e09fa637&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001190-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"UK Foreign Direct Investment in uncertain economic times\",\"authors\":\"Costas Milas , Theodore Panagiotidis , Georgios Papapanagiotou\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103132\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper uses time-varying Bayesian models to assess the impact of the shifting, and progressively more volatile (especially since the EU Referendum vote in 2016) macroeconomic landscape on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the UK. FDI inflows are depressed in response to higher UK-specific economic and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger real exchange rate and a higher interest rate also have a negative effect. It benefits from lower UK corporate tax rates and higher US uncertainty, the latter creating investment opportunities in the UK. Rising economic policy uncertainty since the EU Referendum, has led to FDI losses of up to 0.5% of GDP.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":2,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Applied Bio Materials\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001190/pdfft?md5=0ac078b2893b94c4210a9ae7e09fa637&pid=1-s2.0-S0261560624001190-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Applied Bio Materials\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001190\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001190","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本文使用时变贝叶斯模型来评估不断变化且波动性逐渐增大（尤其是自 2016 年退欧公投投票以来）的宏观经济形势对流入英国的外国直接投资（FDI）的影响。由于英国特有的经济和地缘政治不确定性增加，外国直接投资流入受到抑制。实际汇率走强和利率上升也会产生负面影响。美国则受益于英国较低的企业税率和美国较高的不确定性，后者为英国创造了投资机会。自欧盟公投以来，经济政策不确定性上升，导致外国直接投资损失高达 GDP 的 0.5%。
UK Foreign Direct Investment in uncertain economic times
This paper uses time-varying Bayesian models to assess the impact of the shifting, and progressively more volatile (especially since the EU Referendum vote in 2016) macroeconomic landscape on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the UK. FDI inflows are depressed in response to higher UK-specific economic and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger real exchange rate and a higher interest rate also have a negative effect. It benefits from lower UK corporate tax rates and higher US uncertainty, the latter creating investment opportunities in the UK. Rising economic policy uncertainty since the EU Referendum, has led to FDI losses of up to 0.5% of GDP.
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