Did the increase in birth grants result in higher births? Evidence from the Czech demographic and population policy change

PurposeThis research contributes to a better understanding of the effects of public demographic and population policy. The study investigates whether a considerable increase in birth grants in 2006 in the Czech Republic resulted in a higher number of births.Design/methodology/approachTo quantify the effects, we work with the administrative, statistical daily data (1993–2016) on the number of births and use time series analysis tools. In particular, we estimate a time series regression model via the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique with robust standard errors, testing placebo effects and the differences between the trend-forecasted values in the absence of the grant change.FindingsOur results, spread over several time windows covering up to a ten-year period after the intervention, show that the intervention significantly and positively affected the number of births in the post-intervention periods. The evidence obtained from the econometric analysis of the time series clearly shows that after the demographic and population policy change, there was an average increase of 17–19 births daily when the data was analysed up to 2016. Therefore, the conclusion is that the policy intervention led to expected and desired policy outcomes.Originality/valueThe study provides the stakeholders and policymakers with an experience of the public policy aiming to support fertility, which has reached its expectations.