不确定性、就业和零下限

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI:10.32479/ijeep.15752

Qing Nie, Xin L. Brown, Baohui Liu, Maruf Morshed

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在研究美国总就业和部门就业对石油和宏观市场的冲击和不确定性的反应。为了估算实际数据集，我们使用 1986Q1-2021Q4 期间的美国数据，建立了一个包含 12 个变量的 VAR 模型。在不同的石油和宏观经济不确定性以及不同的货币当局的作用下，我们发现当零下限（ZLB）约束时，就业会受到这两种不确定性的显著影响。总就业人数和石油相关行业就业人数在零下限和石油市场不确定性冲击传播的情况下都会出现大幅增长。这些发现凸显了油价和宏观经济不确定性对美国劳动力市场动态的实证相关性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Uncertainties, Employment and the Zero Lower Bound

The purpose of this paper is to study the response of aggregate and sectoral employment in the United States to shocks and uncertainties in the oil and macro markets. To estimate the actual dataset, we employ a VAR model with 12 variables using U.S. data during 1986Q1-2021Q4. With alternative oil and macroeconomic uncertainties and different monetary authorities, we find that employment is significantly affected by both types of uncertainty when zero lower bound (ZLB) binds. Total employment and oil-related industries employment show a significant increase in the presence of the ZLB and the propagation of uncertainty shock from the oil market. These findings highlight the empirical relevance of oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainty on U.S. labor market dynamics.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

296

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy (IJEEP) is the international academic journal, and is a double-blind, peer-reviewed academic journal publishing high quality conceptual and measure development articles in the areas of energy economics, energy policy and related disciplines. The journal has a worldwide audience. The journal''s goal is to stimulate the development of energy economics, energy policy and related disciplines theory worldwide by publishing interesting articles in a highly readable format. The journal is published bimonthly (6 issues per year) and covers a wide variety of topics including (but not limited to): Energy Consumption, Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth - Energy, Energy Policy, Energy Planning, Energy Forecasting, Energy Pricing, Energy Politics, Energy Financing, Energy Efficiency, Energy Modelling, Energy Use, Energy - Environment, Energy Systems, Renewable Energy, Energy Sources, Environmental Economics, Oil & Gas .