估算石油价格波动对厄瓜多尔经济的影响：MIDAS 方法

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI:10.32479/ijeep.16285

Freddy Ronalde Camacho-Villagomez, Yanina Shegia Bajaña-Villagomez, Andrea Johanna Rodríguez-Bustos

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提供了油价波动对厄瓜多尔政府支出、税收和经济增长影响的经验证据。这些影响是通过使用 2004 年至 2019 年期间的季度和月度数据进行 MIDAS 回归估算得出的。结果显示，石油价格波动对政府支出和税收收入有积极影响，这表明财政政策中存在非审慎行为。国内生产总值的影响并不显著，这与经济直觉和以往的研究相反。这些发现具有若干政策含义，与石油出口国财政政策方面的文献相一致。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Estimating the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Ecuadorian Economy: A MIDAS Approach

This paper provides empirical evidence about the impact of oil price volatility on government spending, tax revenues, and economic growth for Ecuador. The effects are estimated via a MIDAS regression using quarterly and monthly data for the period 2004 to 2019. The results show that oil price volatility has a positive impact on government spending and tax revenues which is an indicative of a non-prudence behavior in fiscal policy. The impact of GDP is non-significant, contrary to economic intuition and previous studies. These findings have several policy implications that are consistent with the literature of fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

296

审稿时长

14 weeks

期刊介绍： International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy (IJEEP) is the international academic journal, and is a double-blind, peer-reviewed academic journal publishing high quality conceptual and measure development articles in the areas of energy economics, energy policy and related disciplines. The journal has a worldwide audience. The journal''s goal is to stimulate the development of energy economics, energy policy and related disciplines theory worldwide by publishing interesting articles in a highly readable format. The journal is published bimonthly (6 issues per year) and covers a wide variety of topics including (but not limited to): Energy Consumption, Electricity Consumption, Economic Growth - Energy, Energy Policy, Energy Planning, Energy Forecasting, Energy Pricing, Energy Politics, Energy Financing, Energy Efficiency, Energy Modelling, Energy Use, Energy - Environment, Energy Systems, Renewable Energy, Energy Sources, Environmental Economics, Oil & Gas .