新闻与信息刚性:GDP 增长预测的进一步证据

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Fazlul Miah
{"title":"新闻与信息刚性:GDP 增长预测的进一步证据","authors":"Fazlul Miah","doi":"10.1142/s2194565924500039","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The study investigates the existence and the extent of information rigidity in gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002–2017 period utilizing a survey dataset never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds ample evidence of information rigidity. However, it is not as common and as severe as it is in earlier studies. Our study also finds ample evidence of overreaction to new information. Information rigidity is present during the recession period for the developed countries, and we find some evidence of information gathering picking up during the recession period. Overall, we notice less forecast rigidity or inefficiency in our study compared to some earlier studies. Our multi-country test results show that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross-country lagged revisions. In general, forecast revisions of developed economies, especially USA, prompt revisions in other developed and developing economies. Similarly, some developing countries’ forecast revisions prompt revisions in other developed and developing countries although at smaller magnitudes. Therefore, we confirm from earlier studies that one source of forecast rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions quickly and completely.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"58 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"NEWS AND INFORMATION RIGIDITY: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM GDP GROWTH FORECASTS\",\"authors\":\"Fazlul Miah\",\"doi\":\"10.1142/s2194565924500039\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The study investigates the existence and the extent of information rigidity in gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002–2017 period utilizing a survey dataset never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds ample evidence of information rigidity. However, it is not as common and as severe as it is in earlier studies. Our study also finds ample evidence of overreaction to new information. Information rigidity is present during the recession period for the developed countries, and we find some evidence of information gathering picking up during the recession period. Overall, we notice less forecast rigidity or inefficiency in our study compared to some earlier studies. Our multi-country test results show that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross-country lagged revisions. In general, forecast revisions of developed economies, especially USA, prompt revisions in other developed and developing economies. Similarly, some developing countries’ forecast revisions prompt revisions in other developed and developing countries although at smaller magnitudes. Therefore, we confirm from earlier studies that one source of forecast rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions quickly and completely.\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":\"58 14\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565924500039\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s2194565924500039","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用以前从未探讨过的调查数据集,调查了 2002-2017 年间 25 个发达经济体和 18 个发展中经济体的国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测中是否存在信息刚性以及信息刚性的程度。总体而言,研究发现了大量信息刚性的证据。不过,这种情况并不像以前的研究那样普遍和严重。我们的研究还发现了大量对新信息反应过度的证据。发达国家在经济衰退期间存在信息僵化现象,我们发现一些证据表明,在经济衰退期间,信息收集工作有所加强。总体而言,与之前的一些研究相比,我们注意到我们的研究中的预测僵化或低效率现象较少。我们的多国测试结果表明,预测修正取决于本国和跨国的滞后修正。一般来说,发达经济体(尤其是美国)的预测修正会促使其他发达经济体和发展中经济体进行修正。同样,一些发展中国家的预测修正也会引起其他发达国家和发展中国家的修正,尽管幅度较小。因此,我们从先前的研究中证实,预测僵化的一个原因是预测修正没有快速、全面地纳入海外事件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
NEWS AND INFORMATION RIGIDITY: FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
The study investigates the existence and the extent of information rigidity in gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002–2017 period utilizing a survey dataset never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds ample evidence of information rigidity. However, it is not as common and as severe as it is in earlier studies. Our study also finds ample evidence of overreaction to new information. Information rigidity is present during the recession period for the developed countries, and we find some evidence of information gathering picking up during the recession period. Overall, we notice less forecast rigidity or inefficiency in our study compared to some earlier studies. Our multi-country test results show that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross-country lagged revisions. In general, forecast revisions of developed economies, especially USA, prompt revisions in other developed and developing economies. Similarly, some developing countries’ forecast revisions prompt revisions in other developed and developing countries although at smaller magnitudes. Therefore, we confirm from earlier studies that one source of forecast rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions quickly and completely.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信