利用时空分析探索地震参数与大气参数之间的联系:对地震预测的影响

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
M. Senthil Kumar, N. Venkatanathan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管已经提出了许多地震前兆来预报地震,但即使在现代,由于地震发生的异质性,短期地震预报仍然具有挑战性。本研究主要关注即将发生的地震如何通过轻微震动影响震前情景,并通过大气参数(如外向长波辐射(OLR))进一步证实。喜马拉雅山带是大陆-大陆碰撞中最危险的地区之一。通过对震前情景的时空分析,确定了最脆弱的地震风险区,并预测了地震的可能震级。分析发现,应变能量的积累集中在即将发生地震的震中附近。此外,研究还发现,地震前几天观测到的大气参数异常变化,可能是地震活动的前兆。在某些日子里,在即将发生地震的震中附近的不同地点观测到了由于氡气散发而导致的异常 OLR。这种现象可能是由于累积的应变通过即将发生地震的震中从断层的一侧转移到断层的另一侧。这为确定可能的震中提供了重要线索。通过对与重大地震相关的微震进行统计分析,可以确定可能引发大地震成核过程的微震的震级和深度范围。不同断层类型的地震成核过程所涉及的微震震级和深度范围各不相同。这项研究强调了监测地震和大气活动对改进地震预报和防备工作的重要性。因此,可以确定最脆弱的地震带、震中位置和可能震级的时空分析。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Exploring the Link Between Seismic and Atmospheric Parameters Using Spatio Temporal Analysis: Implications for Earthquake Forecasting

Exploring the Link Between Seismic and Atmospheric Parameters Using Spatio Temporal Analysis: Implications for Earthquake Forecasting

Although many earthquake precursors have been proposed to forecast earthquakes, even in this modern era, short-term earthquake forecasting remains challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of the earthquake’s occurrence. This study mainly focused on how the impending earthquake influences pre-earthquake scenarios using minor shocks and further confirmed by atmospheric parameters such as Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR). The Himalayan belt is one of the most at-risk areas during a continental-continental collision. The spatiotemporal analysis of the pre-earthquake scenario is carried out to identify the most vulnerable seismic risk zone and to forecast the probable magnitude of the earthquake. From the analysis, it is found that the accumulation of strain energy focussing near the epicenter of the impending earthquake. Furthermore, the study also revealed that abnormal changes in atmospheric parameters observed several days before an earthquake, which could serve as a precursor of seismic activity. On certain days, the anomalous OLR due to the radon gas emanation was observed at the different locations around the epicenter of the impending earthquakes. This phenomenon probably due to the transfer of accumulated strain from one side of the fault to other side of the fault through epicenter of the impending earthquake. This gives vital clue in determining the possible epicenter of the earthquake. The statistical analysis of minor shocks associated with significant earthquakes made it possible to determine the magnitude and depth range of minor shocks that may trigger the nucleation process for major earthquakes. The magnitude and depth ranges of microshocks involved in the nucleation process differed among fault types. This research highlights the importance of monitoring seismic and atmospheric activity to improve earthquake forecasting and preparedness. Hence, it is possible to identify the most vulnerable seismic zone, location of the epicenter and probable magnitude spatio-temporal analysis.

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来源期刊
pure and applied geophysics
pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
240
审稿时长
9.8 months
期刊介绍: pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.
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