{"title":"对进口铁矿石供应短缺的整体经济和环境评估:中国案例","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.07.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recently, geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify, with profound effects on global supply security of key mineral resources. Considering China's high dependence on foreign iron ore, once there is an import shortage, what impacts will it have on China's macro-economy and environment? Thus, using a computable general equilibrium model, this study introduced import supply disruption behaviour to assess the economy-wide and environmental effects of a large-scale iron ore import shortage on China. Furthermore, two supporting measures of enhancing upstream mining and cancelling steel import tariffs were constructed. The results demonstrated that an import shortage of iron ore will generate a negative effect on China's GDP and household welfare, wherein the higher the disruption degree, the greater the negative effect will be, and the maximum loss of GDP is 5.6 % in 2035. Secondly, total energy demand has reduced obviously, and the largest decline is 8.8 % in 2035. Particularly, the coal demand is most negatively affected by GDP loss, shrinking by up to 11.4 % by 2035. Meanwhile, the oil and gas demands have also dropped to some degree. Thirdly, the import disruption will help to reduce carbon emissions (by up to 9.9 % in 2035), but also have obvious environmental benefits. Finally, both measures will help alleviate the negative socio-economic impacts; however, the overall effects will be better if enhancing upstream mining is complemented by carbon pricing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An economy-wide and environmental assessment of an imported supply shortage for iron ore: The case of China\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eap.2024.07.002\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Recently, geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify, with profound effects on global supply security of key mineral resources. Considering China's high dependence on foreign iron ore, once there is an import shortage, what impacts will it have on China's macro-economy and environment? Thus, using a computable general equilibrium model, this study introduced import supply disruption behaviour to assess the economy-wide and environmental effects of a large-scale iron ore import shortage on China. Furthermore, two supporting measures of enhancing upstream mining and cancelling steel import tariffs were constructed. The results demonstrated that an import shortage of iron ore will generate a negative effect on China's GDP and household welfare, wherein the higher the disruption degree, the greater the negative effect will be, and the maximum loss of GDP is 5.6 % in 2035. Secondly, total energy demand has reduced obviously, and the largest decline is 8.8 % in 2035. Particularly, the coal demand is most negatively affected by GDP loss, shrinking by up to 11.4 % by 2035. Meanwhile, the oil and gas demands have also dropped to some degree. Thirdly, the import disruption will help to reduce carbon emissions (by up to 9.9 % in 2035), but also have obvious environmental benefits. Finally, both measures will help alleviate the negative socio-economic impacts; however, the overall effects will be better if enhancing upstream mining is complemented by carbon pricing.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54200,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Analysis and Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Analysis and Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S031359262400170X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Analysis and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S031359262400170X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
近期,地缘政治冲突不断加剧,对全球重要矿产资源的供应安全产生了深远影响。考虑到中国铁矿石对外依存度较高,一旦出现进口短缺,将对中国宏观经济和环境产生怎样的影响?因此,本研究利用可计算一般均衡模型,引入进口供给中断行为,评估大规模铁矿石进口短缺对中国整体经济和环境的影响。此外,还构建了加强上游采矿和取消钢铁进口关税两项配套措施。结果表明,铁矿石进口短缺将对中国的 GDP 和家庭福利产生负面影响,其中中断程度越高,负面影响越大,2035 年 GDP 的最大损失为 5.6%。其次,能源需求总量明显下降,最大降幅为 2035 年的 8.8%。其中,煤炭需求受 GDP 损失的负面影响最大,到 2035 年缩减达 11.4%。同时,石油和天然气的需求也有一定程度的下降。第三,进口中断将有助于减少碳排放(到 2035 年减少高达 9.9%),同时也具有明显的环境效益。最后,这两项措施都有助于减轻对社会经济的负面影响;不过,如果在加强上游开采的同时辅之以碳定价,整体效果会更好。
An economy-wide and environmental assessment of an imported supply shortage for iron ore: The case of China
Recently, geopolitical conflicts continue to intensify, with profound effects on global supply security of key mineral resources. Considering China's high dependence on foreign iron ore, once there is an import shortage, what impacts will it have on China's macro-economy and environment? Thus, using a computable general equilibrium model, this study introduced import supply disruption behaviour to assess the economy-wide and environmental effects of a large-scale iron ore import shortage on China. Furthermore, two supporting measures of enhancing upstream mining and cancelling steel import tariffs were constructed. The results demonstrated that an import shortage of iron ore will generate a negative effect on China's GDP and household welfare, wherein the higher the disruption degree, the greater the negative effect will be, and the maximum loss of GDP is 5.6 % in 2035. Secondly, total energy demand has reduced obviously, and the largest decline is 8.8 % in 2035. Particularly, the coal demand is most negatively affected by GDP loss, shrinking by up to 11.4 % by 2035. Meanwhile, the oil and gas demands have also dropped to some degree. Thirdly, the import disruption will help to reduce carbon emissions (by up to 9.9 % in 2035), but also have obvious environmental benefits. Finally, both measures will help alleviate the negative socio-economic impacts; however, the overall effects will be better if enhancing upstream mining is complemented by carbon pricing.
期刊介绍:
Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.