外推信念与回报可预测性：来自中国的证据

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI:10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100957

Huajing Zhang , Fuwei Jiang , Yumin Liu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们探讨了外推信念在中国股市回报率可预测性中的作用。基于外推的理论认为，收益可预测性源于外推者对错误定价的最终修正，尤其是在外推信念较强的时期。我们的研究结果支持这一观点，表明外推信念越强，估值比率的收益预测性就越强。机制分析表明，外推信念会影响均值回复和投资者情绪。

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Extrapolative beliefs and return predictability: Evidence from China

We explore the role of extrapolative beliefs in return predictability in the Chinese stock market. Extrapolation-based theories suggest that the return predictability arises from the eventual correction of mispricing caused by extrapolators, particularly during periods of high extrapolative beliefs. Our findings support this notion, indicating that greater extrapolative beliefs strengthen the return predictability of valuation ratios. Mechanism analyses reveal that extrapolative beliefs influence the mean-reversion and investor sentiment.

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来源期刊

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

13.20

自引率

6.10%

发文量

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Behavioral and Experimental Finance represent lenses and approaches through which we can view financial decision-making. The aim of the journal is to publish high quality research in all fields of finance, where such research is carried out with a behavioral perspective and / or is carried out via experimental methods. It is open to but not limited to papers which cover investigations of biases, the role of various neurological markers in financial decision making, national and organizational culture as it impacts financial decision making, sentiment and asset pricing, the design and implementation of experiments to investigate financial decision making and trading, methodological experiments, and natural experiments. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance welcomes full-length and short letter papers in the area of behavioral finance and experimental finance. The focus is on rapid dissemination of high-impact research in these areas.