基于气孔和同位素分析的蒙古早白垩世晚期大气二氧化碳估算。

IF 2.4 2区 生物学 Q2 PLANT SCIENCES
Xiaoqing Zhang, Dana L. Royer, Gongle Shi, Niiden Ichinnorov, Patrick S. Herendeen, Peter R. Crane, Fabiany Herrera
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引用次数: 0

摘要

前提:始新世-阿尔卑斯时期(121.4-100.5Ma)是一个温室时期,全球气温估计比工业化前温度高10-15°C,因此,令人惊讶的是,这个时期最可靠的二氧化碳估算值是2,这意味着从始新世-阿尔卑斯时期到今天,每二氧化碳增加一倍,地球系统的敏感性就会提高6-9°C:我们根据叶片气体交换原理(弗兰克斯模型),对蒙古中部特夫希因戈维褐煤矿(约 119.7-100.5 Ma)三个地层相似样本中的两个假蕨类植物物种应用了一个经过充分验证的古二氧化碳替代物:我们从三个样本中估算出的二氧化碳浓度中值分别为 2132、2405 和 2770 ppm。估计二氧化碳浓度较高但不确定性相对较大的主要原因是这两个物种的气孔密度都很低,微小的变化会导致估计二氧化碳浓度的大幅变化。事实上,我们发现至少需要 15 片叶子,估计的二氧化碳总量才能接近完整数据集的二氧化碳总量:我们的三个二氧化碳估算值都超过了 2000 ppm,这意味着地球系统敏感度(约 3-5°C/CO2 双倍)更符合当前对长期气候系统的理解。由于我们的样本量大,直接测量的输入量对二氧化碳估算值的总体不确定性影响不大;相反,推断的输入量造成了总体不确定性的大部分,因此应仔细审查其数值选择。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimates of late Early Cretaceous atmospheric CO2 from Mongolia based on stomatal and isotopic analysis of Pseudotorellia

Premise

The Aptian–Albian (121.4–100.5 Ma) was a greenhouse period with global temperatures estimated as 10–15°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions, so it is surprising that the most reliable CO2 estimates from this time are <1400 ppm. This low CO2 during a warm period implies a very high Earth-system sensitivity in the range of 6 to 9°C per CO2 doubling between the Aptian-Albian and today.

Methods

We applied a well-vetted paleo-CO2 proxy based on leaf gas-exchange principles (Franks model) to two Pseudotorellia species from three stratigraphically similar samples at the Tevshiin Govi lignite mine in central Mongolia (~119.7–100.5 Ma).

Results

Our median estimated CO2 concentration from the three respective samples was 2132, 2405, and 2770 ppm. The primary reason for the high estimated CO2 but with relatively large uncertainties is the very low stomatal density in both species, where small variations propagate to large changes in estimated CO2. Indeed, we found that at least 15 leaves are required before the aggregate estimated CO2 approaches that of the full data set.

Conclusions

Our three CO2 estimates all exceeded 2000 ppm, translating to an Earth-system sensitivity (~3–5°C/CO2 doubling) that is more in keeping with the current understanding of the long-term climate system. Because of our large sample size, the directly measured inputs did not contribute much to the overall uncertainty in estimated CO2; instead, the inferred inputs were responsible for most of the overall uncertainty and thus should be scrutinized for their value choices.

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来源期刊
American Journal of Botany
American Journal of Botany 生物-植物科学
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
6.70%
发文量
171
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The American Journal of Botany (AJB), the flagship journal of the Botanical Society of America (BSA), publishes peer-reviewed, innovative, significant research of interest to a wide audience of plant scientists in all areas of plant biology (structure, function, development, diversity, genetics, evolution, systematics), all levels of organization (molecular to ecosystem), and all plant groups and allied organisms (cyanobacteria, algae, fungi, and lichens). AJB requires authors to frame their research questions and discuss their results in terms of major questions of plant biology. In general, papers that are too narrowly focused, purely descriptive, natural history, broad surveys, or that contain only preliminary data will not be considered.
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