1917-21 年的经济萧条是否加速了流行病学的转型?西班牙马德里的牛奶价格、夏季死亡高峰以及食物和水的死亡原因

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在回答一个具有启发性的问题:较高的价格,尤其是牛奶价格,是否有利于两岁以下儿童的生存?我们利用一个包含 23 万多名出生婴儿和死亡婴儿的数据库,以 1915 年至 1926 年间的地中海大城市马德里为背景,对这一假设进行了检验。在此期间,一场通货膨胀危机从 1917 年蔓延至 1921 年。我们比较了经济萧条前、萧条期间和萧条后的儿童存活率、牛奶价格波动的影响以及夏季死亡率高峰,同时控制了社会空间隔离,并考虑了全因死亡率以及食物和水传播疾病导致的死亡率。牛奶价格上涨与生存机会增加之间的正相关在统计学上是稳健的,但只有在经济萧条期间才能观察到。本文讨论了几种解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Did the 1917–21 economic depression accelerate the epidemiological transition? Milk prices, summer peak of mortality, and food-and-water causes of death in Madrid, Spain

This article aims to answer a provocative question: would higher prices, particularly that of milk, be beneficial for the survival of children under 2 years old? Using a database of more than 230,000 births, matched to deaths, we test this hypothesis in the context of a large Mediterranean city, Madrid, in the years 1915–1926. During this period an inflationary crisis spread from 1917 to 1921. We compare child survival, the impact of milk price fluctuations, and the summer mortality peak, controlling for socio-spatial segregation and considering all-cause mortality and mortality due to food- and water-borne illnesses, before, during and after the economic depression. A positive association between increases in the milk price and better chances of survival is statistically robust, but only observed during depression. Several explanations are discussed.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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