Satellite gravimetry observations on the state of groundwater level variability in the Arabian Peninsula Region and the associated socio-economic sustainability challenges

Groundwater is an important resource for the Arabian Peninsula Region. The population increase, rise in agricultural activities, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) inclination towards economic diversification and tourism promotion have heightened the freshwater demand. As a result of climate change and varying weather patterns, the situation has become more complicated. Due to arid conditions, recharge is mostly less than withdrawal which consequently results in underground water level decline over time. In the research, we have used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE/GRACE-FO) MASCON solutions, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) soil moisture, and the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG) rainfall data to observe the Equivalent Water Thickness (EWT), and rainfall patterns in this region for the past two decades (2002–2023). The results indicate that in Saudi Arabia the water level is declining nearly at a linear rate and the linear regression model fits well with the data (R² value, the coefficient of determination, for different cities of Saudi Arabia is ≥ 0.94). In the Al Jouf Area, the water decline is the highest at −1.69 cm/year which is 43% greater than the previous calculations. The lowest decline rate is in Sanaa (Yemen) which is −0.13 cm/year. Furthermore, all the other studied locations show a groundwater declining trend. In Saudi Arabia's Makkah, Madina, Riyadh, and Damam the reduction rate is −0.36, −0.48, −0.72, and −0.48 (cm/year) respectively. Kuwait, UAE's Dubai, and Al Ain show a similar groundwater reduction rate of −0.19 cm/year. In Oman's Masqat, the groundwater decline rate is −0.22 cm/year. Also, in the recent data, one can see the higher seasonal amplitudes that are indicative of greater fluctuations in EWT data in recent times. If water mining continues at the same pace, this important resource can become a rare commodity. Limited water supply can likely become a limiting factor for further social, agricultural, and industrial development. That's why major reviews and shifts are necessary in the current policies related to water resource management and conservation.