模式信息学方法在不同选定区域下的预报效率及南北地震带的地震潜力估计

IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences
Weixi Tian , Yongxian Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年,南北地震带发生了四次 MS≥6.0 的地震,包括门源 MS6.9 地震和泸定 MS6.8 地震,表现出很强的地震活动性。模式信息学(PI)方法作为一种有效的中长期地震预报方法,已被应用于中国大陆的强震预报,并取得了良好的效果。本研究利用中国地震台网中心提供的 1970 年以来 MS3.0 级以上地震目录,采用接收方操作特征(ROC)方法,系统地检验了 PI 方法在南北地震带相关各选区的预报效率。在此基础上,我们选择了 ROC 测试结果最好的地区,分析了反映门源 MS6.9 和泸定 MS6.8 地震前小震活动格局的 PI 热区图的演变过程。对该地区进行了 "前瞻性 "预报,以评估地震风险。研究结果表明1) 在选定的研究区域内,任何地方的地震活动性差异都较小,PI 预报具有较高的预报效率。2)在震级差异较小的地区,通过分析 PI 热区图的时空演化过程,可以获得门源 MS6.9 和泸定 MS6.8 地震前的小震活动规律。3)研究区南部塔藏断层及其周围的热点演化过程与强震前相似,提示了未来可能发生的地震灾害。这项研究可为其他地震高发地区(如日本、加利福尼亚、土耳其和印度尼西亚)的地震灾害评估提供一些思路。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone

In 2022, four earthquakes with MS≥6.0 including the Menyuan MS6.9 and Luding MS6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone (NSSZ), which demonstrated high and strong seismicity. Pattern Informatics (PI) method, as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method, has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance. The earthquake catalog with magnitude above MS3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically. Based on this, we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan MS6.9 and Luding MS6.8 earthquakes. A “forward” forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk. The study shows the following. 1) PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller. 2) In areas with smaller differences of seismicity, the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan MS6.9 and Luding MS6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map. 3) The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes, which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future. This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity, such as Japan, California, Turkey, and Indonesia.

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来源期刊
Earthquake Science
Earthquake Science GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
42
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Earthquake Science (EQS) aims to publish high-quality, original, peer-reviewed articles on earthquake-related research subjects. It is an English international journal sponsored by the Seismological Society of China and the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The topics include, but not limited to, the following ● Seismic sources of all kinds. ● Earth structure at all scales. ● Seismotectonics. ● New methods and theoretical seismology. ● Strong ground motion. ● Seismic phenomena of all kinds. ● Seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting and prediction. ● Seismic instrumentation. ● Significant recent or past seismic events. ● Documentation of recent seismic events or important observations. ● Descriptions of field deployments, new methods, and available software tools. The types of manuscripts include the following. There is no length requirement, except for the Short Notes. 【Articles】 Original contributions that have not been published elsewhere. 【Short Notes】 Short papers of recent events or topics that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. Limited to 4 publication pages. 【Rapid Communications】 Significant contributions that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. 【Review Articles】Review articles are by invitation only. Please contact the editorial office and editors for possible proposals. 【Toolboxes】 Descriptions of novel numerical methods and associated computer codes. 【Data Products】 Documentation of datasets of various kinds that are interested to the community and available for open access (field data, processed data, synthetic data, or models). 【Opinions】Views on important topics and future directions in earthquake science. 【Comments and Replies】Commentaries on a recently published EQS paper is welcome. The authors of the paper commented will be invited to reply. Both the Comment and the Reply are subject to peer review.
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