Zhilang Zhang , Pengcheng Xu , Dong Wang , Huanyu Yang , Vijay P. Singh , Xiaolei Fu , Hongyuan Fang , Gengxi Zhang , Saiyan Liu , Jianchun Qiu
{"title":"考虑到非平稳性,量化淮河及其支流之间的洪水重合可能性","authors":"Zhilang Zhang , Pengcheng Xu , Dong Wang , Huanyu Yang , Vijay P. Singh , Xiaolei Fu , Hongyuan Fang , Gengxi Zhang , Saiyan Liu , Jianchun Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101887","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><p>The Huai River Basin, China.</p></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><p>This study chooses the daily flow data of Huai River and its tributaries, Shi River and Hong River during 1959–2016. The co-occurrence of floods in different tributaries of the catchment is assessed by analyzing the flood peak and flood timing at three different gauging stations located in the river network. What’s more, the parameters(estimated from the 30-year scale time windows) of the marginal and joint distributions are assumed stationary and nonstationary respectively to explore how the trend of coincidence probability(CP) is effected by them.</p></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><p>The results show that, over the period analyzed, the most probable time of flood co-occurrence over the gauge stations in the study area tends to move backwards from 10 July to about 20 July. The probability of flood co-occurrence at the Bantai and Jiangjiaji gauging stations, which singularly experience an increase in flood peak, increases from <span><math><mrow><mn>9.25</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>9</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>(the 1st window) to <span><math><mrow><mn>1.17</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>5</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>(the 25th window) when the return period of flood is 20 year, while in the same condition, the CP of Bantai and Wangjiaba decreased from <span><math><mrow><mn>6.16</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>6</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> to <span><math><mrow><mn>2.48</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>7</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824002362/pdfft?md5=23887c23b34d3d0f6c578b73875953f3&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824002362-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Quantifying the flood coincidence likelihood between Huai River and its tributaries considering the nonstationarity\",\"authors\":\"Zhilang Zhang , Pengcheng Xu , Dong Wang , Huanyu Yang , Vijay P. Singh , Xiaolei Fu , Hongyuan Fang , Gengxi Zhang , Saiyan Liu , Jianchun Qiu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101887\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Study region</h3><p>The Huai River Basin, China.</p></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><p>This study chooses the daily flow data of Huai River and its tributaries, Shi River and Hong River during 1959–2016. The co-occurrence of floods in different tributaries of the catchment is assessed by analyzing the flood peak and flood timing at three different gauging stations located in the river network. What’s more, the parameters(estimated from the 30-year scale time windows) of the marginal and joint distributions are assumed stationary and nonstationary respectively to explore how the trend of coincidence probability(CP) is effected by them.</p></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><p>The results show that, over the period analyzed, the most probable time of flood co-occurrence over the gauge stations in the study area tends to move backwards from 10 July to about 20 July. The probability of flood co-occurrence at the Bantai and Jiangjiaji gauging stations, which singularly experience an increase in flood peak, increases from <span><math><mrow><mn>9.25</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>9</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>(the 1st window) to <span><math><mrow><mn>1.17</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>5</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>(the 25th window) when the return period of flood is 20 year, while in the same condition, the CP of Bantai and Wangjiaba decreased from <span><math><mrow><mn>6.16</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>6</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> to <span><math><mrow><mn>2.48</mn><mo>×</mo><msup><mrow><mn>10</mn></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>7</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48620,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824002362/pdfft?md5=23887c23b34d3d0f6c578b73875953f3&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581824002362-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824002362\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"WATER RESOURCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824002362","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Quantifying the flood coincidence likelihood between Huai River and its tributaries considering the nonstationarity
Study region
The Huai River Basin, China.
Study focus
This study chooses the daily flow data of Huai River and its tributaries, Shi River and Hong River during 1959–2016. The co-occurrence of floods in different tributaries of the catchment is assessed by analyzing the flood peak and flood timing at three different gauging stations located in the river network. What’s more, the parameters(estimated from the 30-year scale time windows) of the marginal and joint distributions are assumed stationary and nonstationary respectively to explore how the trend of coincidence probability(CP) is effected by them.
New hydrological insights for the region
The results show that, over the period analyzed, the most probable time of flood co-occurrence over the gauge stations in the study area tends to move backwards from 10 July to about 20 July. The probability of flood co-occurrence at the Bantai and Jiangjiaji gauging stations, which singularly experience an increase in flood peak, increases from (the 1st window) to (the 25th window) when the return period of flood is 20 year, while in the same condition, the CP of Bantai and Wangjiaba decreased from to .
期刊介绍:
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.