Incidence and Predictors of Diabetic Nephropathy among Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients, Southern Ethiopia.

Background: Diabetic nephropathy is the most common cause of end-stage renal disease, and it brings high morbidity and mortality. Globally, the predominant rise in type II diabetes prevalence significantly increases the incidence of diabetic nephropathy. Therefore, timely diagnosis and prompt management of diabetic nephropathy and early identification of predictors are essential. Thus, this study aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of diabetic nephropathy among type II diabetes mellitus patients.

Methods: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 532 type II diabetes patients who enrolled at Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021. A simple random sampling technique was used to select the study participants. The extracted data were entered into EpiData version 3.1 and analyzed by Stata version 14. A bivariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was fitted to identify predictors of diabetic nephropathy. The Cox proportional hazards assumption was checked using the Schoenfeld residual test, and the goodness of fit of the model was checked using the Cox-Snell residual test. An adjusted hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval and P values were used to identify statistically significant predictors.

Results: The overall incidence rate of diabetic nephropathy was 2.71 cases (95% CI: 2.12, 3.47) per 1,000 person-months of observation. Age (AHR = 1.027; 95% CI = 1.005, 1.049), fasting blood sugar (AHR = 1.010; 95% CI = 1.007, 1.013), and systolic blood pressure (AHR = 1.050; 95% CI = 1.031,1.069) were significant positive predictors of diabetic nephropathy, whereas the duration of diabetes longer than five years (AHR = 0.20; 95% CI = 0.09, 0.44) was a protective predictor for the development of diabetic nephropathy.

Conclusion: The incidence rate of diabetic nephropathy was high. Age, fasting blood sugar, systolic blood pressure, and duration of diabetes were found to be independent predictors of diabetic nephropathy. To overcome this public health problem, prompt and effective strategies should be designed based on identified predictors to prevent the development of diabetic nephropathy.