Association of Baseline Hepatitis B Virus DNA and On-Treatment Risk of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Background: Recent studies suggest an inverse relationship between baseline levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA and on-treatment risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, data are limited to Asian cohorts, and it is unclear if similar associations hold true for non-Asians with CHB. We aimed to evaluate association of baseline HBV DNA with long-term risks of cirrhosis and HCC among a predominantly non-Asian cohort of CHB patients in the USA.

Methods: Using longitudinal data from the national Veterans Affairs database, we evaluated the risk of cirrhosis or HCC among adults with non-cirrhotic CHB who are on continuous antiviral therapy, stratified by moderate levels of baseline HBV DNA (4.00 - 6.99 log₁₀ IU/mL) vs. high levels of baseline HBV DNA (7.00 log₁₀ IU/mL or higher). Propensity score weighting was applied, and competing risks cumulative incidence functions and Cox proportional hazards models were utilized.

Results: Among 1,129 non-cirrhotic CHB patients (41% non-Hispanic White, 36% African American, mean age 57.0 years, 62.2% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) positive), 585 had moderate levels of baseline HBV DNA and 544 had high HBV DNA. After propensity score weighting, no significant difference in risk of cirrhosis was observed between moderate vs. high baseline HBV DNA (4.55 vs. 5.22 per 100 person-years, hazard ratio (HR): 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69 - 1.09, P = 0.22), but risk of HCC was significantly higher in patients with moderate vs. high baseline HBV DNA (0.84 vs. 0.69 per 100 person-years, HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.09 - 1.62, P < 0.01).

Conclusions: Among a national cohort of predominantly non-Asian US veterans with non-cirrhotic CHB on antiviral therapy, moderate levels of baseline HBV DNA was associated with higher risk of HCC than high HBV DNA.