Carla Rodrigues , Eugénio Rodrigues , Marco S. Fernandes , Sérgio Tadeu
{"title":"采用前瞻性生命周期方法使建筑物适应未来气候和去碳化情景","authors":"Carla Rodrigues , Eugénio Rodrigues , Marco S. Fernandes , Sérgio Tadeu","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123867","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The existing building stock is crucial for enhancing decarbonization targets and mitigating climate change. This article delves into a methodological approach that combines prospective life cycle assessment, building thermal simulation using projected future climate data, and global sensitivity analysis to pinpoint the most influential parameters under current climate conditions and future scenarios. The methodology covers plausible decarbonization pathways for the electricity mix, considering the growing utilization of renewable sources, which are influenced by the building locations. An adaptive reuse process involves converting a historic residence into an office building to validate the proposed methodology. Several retrofit strategies are assessed, such as exterior wall insulation, roof insulation, and window replacement. The findings reveal a 12% rise in average usage impacts and a 7% increase in cradle-to-use impacts from the base scenario to future climate projections. Embodied impacts surpass use-phase impacts by 23% in future climates and 33% in certain baseline scenarios. Utilizing future climate data in the life cycle analysis to estimate energy requirements can aid in forecasting building performance under climate change, especially in adapting the existing building stock for enhanced thermal comfort with minimal environmental impact.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":10.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924012509/pdfft?md5=8468adcf77c341deedf3d0fc524583eb&pid=1-s2.0-S0306261924012509-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prospective life cycle approach to buildings' adaptation for future climate and decarbonization scenarios\",\"authors\":\"Carla Rodrigues , Eugénio Rodrigues , Marco S. Fernandes , Sérgio Tadeu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123867\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The existing building stock is crucial for enhancing decarbonization targets and mitigating climate change. This article delves into a methodological approach that combines prospective life cycle assessment, building thermal simulation using projected future climate data, and global sensitivity analysis to pinpoint the most influential parameters under current climate conditions and future scenarios. The methodology covers plausible decarbonization pathways for the electricity mix, considering the growing utilization of renewable sources, which are influenced by the building locations. An adaptive reuse process involves converting a historic residence into an office building to validate the proposed methodology. Several retrofit strategies are assessed, such as exterior wall insulation, roof insulation, and window replacement. The findings reveal a 12% rise in average usage impacts and a 7% increase in cradle-to-use impacts from the base scenario to future climate projections. Embodied impacts surpass use-phase impacts by 23% in future climates and 33% in certain baseline scenarios. Utilizing future climate data in the life cycle analysis to estimate energy requirements can aid in forecasting building performance under climate change, especially in adapting the existing building stock for enhanced thermal comfort with minimal environmental impact.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":246,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Energy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":10.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924012509/pdfft?md5=8468adcf77c341deedf3d0fc524583eb&pid=1-s2.0-S0306261924012509-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924012509\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Energy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924012509","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prospective life cycle approach to buildings' adaptation for future climate and decarbonization scenarios
The existing building stock is crucial for enhancing decarbonization targets and mitigating climate change. This article delves into a methodological approach that combines prospective life cycle assessment, building thermal simulation using projected future climate data, and global sensitivity analysis to pinpoint the most influential parameters under current climate conditions and future scenarios. The methodology covers plausible decarbonization pathways for the electricity mix, considering the growing utilization of renewable sources, which are influenced by the building locations. An adaptive reuse process involves converting a historic residence into an office building to validate the proposed methodology. Several retrofit strategies are assessed, such as exterior wall insulation, roof insulation, and window replacement. The findings reveal a 12% rise in average usage impacts and a 7% increase in cradle-to-use impacts from the base scenario to future climate projections. Embodied impacts surpass use-phase impacts by 23% in future climates and 33% in certain baseline scenarios. Utilizing future climate data in the life cycle analysis to estimate energy requirements can aid in forecasting building performance under climate change, especially in adapting the existing building stock for enhanced thermal comfort with minimal environmental impact.
期刊介绍:
Applied Energy serves as a platform for sharing innovations, research, development, and demonstrations in energy conversion, conservation, and sustainable energy systems. The journal covers topics such as optimal energy resource use, environmental pollutant mitigation, and energy process analysis. It welcomes original papers, review articles, technical notes, and letters to the editor. Authors are encouraged to submit manuscripts that bridge the gap between research, development, and implementation. The journal addresses a wide spectrum of topics, including fossil and renewable energy technologies, energy economics, and environmental impacts. Applied Energy also explores modeling and forecasting, conservation strategies, and the social and economic implications of energy policies, including climate change mitigation. It is complemented by the open-access journal Advances in Applied Energy.