David Mensah Awadzie, Edward Attah-Botchwey, Bright Gabriel Mawudor
{"title":"汇率阈值效应对经济增长的决定因素。加纳的证据","authors":"David Mensah Awadzie, Edward Attah-Botchwey, Bright Gabriel Mawudor","doi":"10.1108/ajems-10-2023-0383","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>The exchange rate is an important driver of a country’s economic growth, influencing trade, investment, inflation, and employment. This study’s main objective was to investigate the threshold effects of exchange rates on economic growth.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>In this research, innovative endogenous threshold autoregressive (TAR) models introduced by Hansen (2000) are employed for estimation and inference. The dataset comprises secondary annual time series data from Ghana, covering thirty-one years from 1990 to 2021. Economic growth is represented by GDPPC, with the growth exchange rate serving as the crucial threshold variable.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>The finding suggests a single exchange rate threshold for Ghana, indicating a nonlinear relationship with economic growth. However, above 8.97%, the exchange rate considerably slows growth, harming the economy. The exchange rate negatively influences growth in both low and high-exchange-rate regimes, but it is insignificant in the high regime. In addition, inflation has a significant negative influence on growth in the low regime but a positive impact on the high regime. In contrast, interest rates positively impact growth in both regimes, though not as significantly in the high regime.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\n<p>The findings from this study offer valuable insights to the Ghanaian government and policymakers as they consider choosing an exchange rate target that helps minimise the negative impact of a high exchange rate to promote economic growth.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>This paper is remarkable for being one of the few studies that have explored the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth, exploring the threshold effect.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46031,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Economic and Management Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Determinants of exchange rate threshold effect on economic growth. 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Economic growth is represented by GDPPC, with the growth exchange rate serving as the crucial threshold variable.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>The finding suggests a single exchange rate threshold for Ghana, indicating a nonlinear relationship with economic growth. However, above 8.97%, the exchange rate considerably slows growth, harming the economy. The exchange rate negatively influences growth in both low and high-exchange-rate regimes, but it is insignificant in the high regime. In addition, inflation has a significant negative influence on growth in the low regime but a positive impact on the high regime. 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Determinants of exchange rate threshold effect on economic growth. Evidence from Ghana
Purpose
The exchange rate is an important driver of a country’s economic growth, influencing trade, investment, inflation, and employment. This study’s main objective was to investigate the threshold effects of exchange rates on economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
In this research, innovative endogenous threshold autoregressive (TAR) models introduced by Hansen (2000) are employed for estimation and inference. The dataset comprises secondary annual time series data from Ghana, covering thirty-one years from 1990 to 2021. Economic growth is represented by GDPPC, with the growth exchange rate serving as the crucial threshold variable.
Findings
The finding suggests a single exchange rate threshold for Ghana, indicating a nonlinear relationship with economic growth. However, above 8.97%, the exchange rate considerably slows growth, harming the economy. The exchange rate negatively influences growth in both low and high-exchange-rate regimes, but it is insignificant in the high regime. In addition, inflation has a significant negative influence on growth in the low regime but a positive impact on the high regime. In contrast, interest rates positively impact growth in both regimes, though not as significantly in the high regime.
Practical implications
The findings from this study offer valuable insights to the Ghanaian government and policymakers as they consider choosing an exchange rate target that helps minimise the negative impact of a high exchange rate to promote economic growth.
Originality/value
This paper is remarkable for being one of the few studies that have explored the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth, exploring the threshold effect.
期刊介绍:
African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.